Saturday, June 27, 2009
A Future Poker Star is Born!
Poker is great, but nothing compares to witnessing the birth of your first child. I see it's been quite some time since my last post, as you can imagine I've been pretty busy with the prep leading up to my daughter being born on June 15, 2009. She is now 13 days old and is super adorable, healthy and awesome in every way. I can't wait to not only spoil her (as I'm doing already), but to teach her some cards real soon - the earlier the start the better!
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Tourney Cash
Last night I placed second in a home tourney of 18 players. It had been a while since I played one of these so of course taking home 6x my buy-in was nice. Nothing too spectacular about this one.
The way I busted was this: Blinds were 1000 / 2000 with 300 ante, I was holding roughly 50,000 and my opponent 40,000. He raised pre-flop I called with my 10-J. Flop comes out Jx 4s 6s and I go all-in, he calls and shows Q-Q which hold. Down to about 10,000. I look down at 8h-9h and call, he puts me all-in and I call. Flop comes out 5 8 9 rainbow with his A-5, and naturally the turn is another 5 and that holds. No regrets here, happy with the way I played throughout the tourney.
The way I busted was this: Blinds were 1000 / 2000 with 300 ante, I was holding roughly 50,000 and my opponent 40,000. He raised pre-flop I called with my 10-J. Flop comes out Jx 4s 6s and I go all-in, he calls and shows Q-Q which hold. Down to about 10,000. I look down at 8h-9h and call, he puts me all-in and I call. Flop comes out 5 8 9 rainbow with his A-5, and naturally the turn is another 5 and that holds. No regrets here, happy with the way I played throughout the tourney.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
I Should Have Played It Differently
In this NL cash game I made 3 straights in the first hour, and another straight for 4 straights within two hours. I swear this is true, on the second straight in the first 30 minutes I said to myself "I'm gonna get stomped by someone else who makes a straight against me when I also have a big hand later tonight." Here's my sad story and how I should have played differently.
I get to limp in the SB with 6-8 off with four players to the flop. Flop is 5-6-8 off and I come out betting. I get min raised by the BB, all others fold back to me and I call. An ace on the turn, board has four suits. I know the player in the BB pretty well, so I check, he bets the pot, and I think for 5 minutes. I go all-in (there is $120 in the pot, I have $180 behind and BB has another $61). He shows 4-7 for a flopped straight and the river doesn't get me a boat.
On the turn, I eliminate the nuts (7-9) and any over pairs, as I didn't think the BB would bet the nuts on this turn so aggressively, and would have raised any significant over-pairs pre-flop. BB could easily have just a 7, like A-7 (he has top pair on the turn with an open-ended) but I also eliminate that type of hand as I thought he would have bet something more like half to two-thirds of the pot. So I put him on the 4-7 or a 5-5 (for a set) - both hands which beat me - or something like a 5-7 (for a pair and an open-ender). I didn't eliminate the 5-5 completely, the betting pattern was certainly indicative of that type of hand as well, but the math says that the 4-7 is actually more likely (I think it's about 3x more likely to have the 4-7 than the 5-5, maybe 6.4% to 2.4%). But the thing is I also thought he could have been playing a smaller two-pair (like 5-6). I was a little stumped when the ace on the turn came out and he bet the pot ($60) - stumped in the sense that I didn't think that board would fear anything for someone with a 4-7 (the odds that I have a 7-9 for the nuts given that he knows he has the 4-7 is about 4.8%). Based on the pot size and his chip stack (lower than mine), I ignored my instincts about the 4-7 and went all-in. I thought it was a "fold or all-in" type of scenario and chose the latter sadly.
I hate when I don't follow my instincts and deductions (and the fact that I told myself I would lose a big pot in this exact way earlier in the night), but I think I could have played the hand differently (other than folding outright after the $60 bet on the turn). In one scenario, I could have re-raised my opponent's min-raise on the flop. One reason why I don't necessarily like that play is if I am re-raised, the same thinking applies - he could have a set or the 4-7 in that spot too, as easily as a lower two-pair or something like the 5-7. Instead, I like the play where on the turn, I come out betting. There was about $60 in the pot at that point, I could have bet anything, like maybe $25 or $30 to gauge where I am. At that point: a) My opponent raises me again, and he would likely raise to say $75 if he had the 4-7 or 5-5, or he may even go all-in at that point (since $75 would be more than half of his stack anyway). Then I have an easy fold. In this case I end up losing about $50. Or, b) He could simply smooth call, putting me on any other hand that is obviously weaker than his, hoping to get another bet out of me on the river assuming no scare cards (like the board pairing) come on the river. Let's say he smooth calls a $30 bet from me so now there is $120 in the pot (and I have $50 committed). On the river, my opponent has $91 left, so I could bet another $30 (I don't think checking is the right thing, even though you suspect you may be beat by a monster), and if he goes all-in, I have an easy fold. If he just calls (for some reason afraid that I have the stone cold nuts - a higher straight), I end up losing $80 total in this scenario - less than the $140 I really lost.
What do you think?
I get to limp in the SB with 6-8 off with four players to the flop. Flop is 5-6-8 off and I come out betting. I get min raised by the BB, all others fold back to me and I call. An ace on the turn, board has four suits. I know the player in the BB pretty well, so I check, he bets the pot, and I think for 5 minutes. I go all-in (there is $120 in the pot, I have $180 behind and BB has another $61). He shows 4-7 for a flopped straight and the river doesn't get me a boat.
On the turn, I eliminate the nuts (7-9) and any over pairs, as I didn't think the BB would bet the nuts on this turn so aggressively, and would have raised any significant over-pairs pre-flop. BB could easily have just a 7, like A-7 (he has top pair on the turn with an open-ended) but I also eliminate that type of hand as I thought he would have bet something more like half to two-thirds of the pot. So I put him on the 4-7 or a 5-5 (for a set) - both hands which beat me - or something like a 5-7 (for a pair and an open-ender). I didn't eliminate the 5-5 completely, the betting pattern was certainly indicative of that type of hand as well, but the math says that the 4-7 is actually more likely (I think it's about 3x more likely to have the 4-7 than the 5-5, maybe 6.4% to 2.4%). But the thing is I also thought he could have been playing a smaller two-pair (like 5-6). I was a little stumped when the ace on the turn came out and he bet the pot ($60) - stumped in the sense that I didn't think that board would fear anything for someone with a 4-7 (the odds that I have a 7-9 for the nuts given that he knows he has the 4-7 is about 4.8%). Based on the pot size and his chip stack (lower than mine), I ignored my instincts about the 4-7 and went all-in. I thought it was a "fold or all-in" type of scenario and chose the latter sadly.
I hate when I don't follow my instincts and deductions (and the fact that I told myself I would lose a big pot in this exact way earlier in the night), but I think I could have played the hand differently (other than folding outright after the $60 bet on the turn). In one scenario, I could have re-raised my opponent's min-raise on the flop. One reason why I don't necessarily like that play is if I am re-raised, the same thinking applies - he could have a set or the 4-7 in that spot too, as easily as a lower two-pair or something like the 5-7. Instead, I like the play where on the turn, I come out betting. There was about $60 in the pot at that point, I could have bet anything, like maybe $25 or $30 to gauge where I am. At that point: a) My opponent raises me again, and he would likely raise to say $75 if he had the 4-7 or 5-5, or he may even go all-in at that point (since $75 would be more than half of his stack anyway). Then I have an easy fold. In this case I end up losing about $50. Or, b) He could simply smooth call, putting me on any other hand that is obviously weaker than his, hoping to get another bet out of me on the river assuming no scare cards (like the board pairing) come on the river. Let's say he smooth calls a $30 bet from me so now there is $120 in the pot (and I have $50 committed). On the river, my opponent has $91 left, so I could bet another $30 (I don't think checking is the right thing, even though you suspect you may be beat by a monster), and if he goes all-in, I have an easy fold. If he just calls (for some reason afraid that I have the stone cold nuts - a higher straight), I end up losing $80 total in this scenario - less than the $140 I really lost.
What do you think?
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Geting It All-In
To me, this hand is not really very interesting, but I thought I would mention it for some food for thought.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Ivey v Cunningham
I watch poker hands play out on YouTube from time to time. This is one of the best hands I've seen. What I love about this is how both players play this hand on every street beginning with pre-flop action, and the ending is pure poker mastery - again, the way both players played it. Honorable mention goes to Matusow who also played his hand perfectly.
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
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