In this NL cash game I made 3 straights in the first hour, and another straight for 4 straights within two hours. I swear this is true, on the second straight in the first 30 minutes I said to myself "I'm gonna get stomped by someone else who makes a straight against me when I also have a big hand later tonight." Here's my sad story and how I should have played differently.
I get to limp in the SB with 6-8 off with four players to the flop. Flop is 5-6-8 off and I come out betting. I get min raised by the BB, all others fold back to me and I call. An ace on the turn, board has four suits. I know the player in the BB pretty well, so I check, he bets the pot, and I think for 5 minutes. I go all-in (there is $120 in the pot, I have $180 behind and BB has another $61). He shows 4-7 for a flopped straight and the river doesn't get me a boat.
On the turn, I eliminate the nuts (7-9) and any over pairs, as I didn't think the BB would bet the nuts on this turn so aggressively, and would have raised any significant over-pairs pre-flop. BB could easily have just a 7, like A-7 (he has top pair on the turn with an open-ended) but I also eliminate that type of hand as I thought he would have bet something more like half to two-thirds of the pot. So I put him on the 4-7 or a 5-5 (for a set) - both hands which beat me - or something like a 5-7 (for a pair and an open-ender). I didn't eliminate the 5-5 completely, the betting pattern was certainly indicative of that type of hand as well, but the math says that the 4-7 is actually more likely (I think it's about 3x more likely to have the 4-7 than the 5-5, maybe 6.4% to 2.4%). But the thing is I also thought he could have been playing a smaller two-pair (like 5-6). I was a little stumped when the ace on the turn came out and he bet the pot ($60) - stumped in the sense that I didn't think that board would fear anything for someone with a 4-7 (the odds that I have a 7-9 for the nuts given that he knows he has the 4-7 is about 4.8%). Based on the pot size and his chip stack (lower than mine), I ignored my instincts about the 4-7 and went all-in. I thought it was a "fold or all-in" type of scenario and chose the latter sadly.
I hate when I don't follow my instincts and deductions (and the fact that I told myself I would lose a big pot in this exact way earlier in the night), but I think I could have played the hand differently (other than folding outright after the $60 bet on the turn). In one scenario, I could have re-raised my opponent's min-raise on the flop. One reason why I don't necessarily like that play is if I am re-raised, the same thinking applies - he could have a set or the 4-7 in that spot too, as easily as a lower two-pair or something like the 5-7. Instead, I like the play where on the turn, I come out betting. There was about $60 in the pot at that point, I could have bet anything, like maybe $25 or $30 to gauge where I am. At that point: a) My opponent raises me again, and he would likely raise to say $75 if he had the 4-7 or 5-5, or he may even go all-in at that point (since $75 would be more than half of his stack anyway). Then I have an easy fold. In this case I end up losing about $50. Or, b) He could simply smooth call, putting me on any other hand that is obviously weaker than his, hoping to get another bet out of me on the river assuming no scare cards (like the board pairing) come on the river. Let's say he smooth calls a $30 bet from me so now there is $120 in the pot (and I have $50 committed). On the river, my opponent has $91 left, so I could bet another $30 (I don't think checking is the right thing, even though you suspect you may be beat by a monster), and if he goes all-in, I have an easy fold. If he just calls (for some reason afraid that I have the stone cold nuts - a higher straight), I end up losing $80 total in this scenario - less than the $140 I really lost.
What do you think?
Showing posts with label Fun Hands. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fun Hands. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Geting It All-In
To me, this hand is not really very interesting, but I thought I would mention it for some food for thought.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Ivey v Cunningham
I watch poker hands play out on YouTube from time to time. This is one of the best hands I've seen. What I love about this is how both players play this hand on every street beginning with pre-flop action, and the ending is pure poker mastery - again, the way both players played it. Honorable mention goes to Matusow who also played his hand perfectly.
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Aggressive Playing Results in a Bust
I don't like to admit it, because quite frankly it doesn't happen often (hardly ever), but I think I was outplayed on this hand. The end result is that I was busted very early in a small buy-in tournament ($100). I went into this one thinking I was going for the gold and wanted to chip up early (blinds at 20 minutes); Well, that didn't work out as planned. Moral of the story: Always play great poker. Like I need to teach myself that lesson again (apparently I do). In this hand, I'm going to write it with you only knowing my cards, then I'll tell you the opponent's cards at the end.
The PLAY
Blinds at 50-100. Fold to me in middle position, I open raise with Q-9d for 300. Folds around to SB who thinks about it and calls, BB calls. 900 to flop. Flop is Q-x-x (rainbow), SB checks, BB bets 500, I raise to 1,500, SB folds, BB calls. 3,900 to turn. Turn is a K (still rainbow board, no straight draws). BB checks, I bet 2,100, BB thinks a bit and calls. 8,100 to river. River is a small blank, BB checks, I put the rest of it in (5,300), BB thinks a bit and calls. I'm out.
The ANALYSIS
When BB bets on the flop, he could be betting with anything there - you know the range of hands already: a medium pocket pair (he didn't re-raise pre-flop), a big ace (including A-K), maybe a queen (Q-J, Q-K, or perhaps A-Q). I raised to show continued strength and get some more information, as well as knock out SB just in case he was thinking about sticking around, so when BB calls I have a good chance I'm beat right there. I narrow the hands down to a bigger Q, and possibly a big pair like J-J just in case he doesn't believe me and is putting me on A-K. When the K comes on the turn and he check-calls my bet, it's pretty clear I am beat at that point - with a bigger Q or Q-K for top two (I eliminate A-K, K-K at this point, but it is also possible he has A-A). That would explain both actions so far from my opponent. When he checks on the river though, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a monster (top two or even a set) so the only way I could win the hand is to go all-in and hope he only has a Q and will fold due to the K out there. Of course, I also thought he could be checking because I've been aggressive on every street - pre-flop, flop, and turn. I go all-in and he calls off the rest of his stack - very early in the tourney - with A-Q. What do you think of that call? Would you have made that call in that spot?
Alternate Play
The only other way I think I would have played this is simply to call the 500 on the flop and then check it down with the guy. Obviously that would have been the more conservative approach. With all my aggression on every street, I really felt like I needed to continue it to the river to take the large pot. With the pre-flop call and then bet on the flop, if my opponent is in fact playing a smaller pocket pair which is why he checks the turn and then the river, the most I would have won is the 1,900 (900 pre-flop + 1,000 on the flop with the 500 bet and my call theoretically), since he would have folded to any continued aggression with a smaller pocket pair. But I think as soon as I get caught in the aggression mode with the chips in the pot, I think I am committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
The only thing I'm happy about in this hand is that I pretty much nailed his hand by the river on a bigger Q, so I was pretty sure he would fold to my all-in bet. Obviously he smelled a rat somehow and caught me. Whoever you are, kudos to you sir.
The PLAY
Blinds at 50-100. Fold to me in middle position, I open raise with Q-9d for 300. Folds around to SB who thinks about it and calls, BB calls. 900 to flop. Flop is Q-x-x (rainbow), SB checks, BB bets 500, I raise to 1,500, SB folds, BB calls. 3,900 to turn. Turn is a K (still rainbow board, no straight draws). BB checks, I bet 2,100, BB thinks a bit and calls. 8,100 to river. River is a small blank, BB checks, I put the rest of it in (5,300), BB thinks a bit and calls. I'm out.
The ANALYSIS
When BB bets on the flop, he could be betting with anything there - you know the range of hands already: a medium pocket pair (he didn't re-raise pre-flop), a big ace (including A-K), maybe a queen (Q-J, Q-K, or perhaps A-Q). I raised to show continued strength and get some more information, as well as knock out SB just in case he was thinking about sticking around, so when BB calls I have a good chance I'm beat right there. I narrow the hands down to a bigger Q, and possibly a big pair like J-J just in case he doesn't believe me and is putting me on A-K. When the K comes on the turn and he check-calls my bet, it's pretty clear I am beat at that point - with a bigger Q or Q-K for top two (I eliminate A-K, K-K at this point, but it is also possible he has A-A). That would explain both actions so far from my opponent. When he checks on the river though, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a monster (top two or even a set) so the only way I could win the hand is to go all-in and hope he only has a Q and will fold due to the K out there. Of course, I also thought he could be checking because I've been aggressive on every street - pre-flop, flop, and turn. I go all-in and he calls off the rest of his stack - very early in the tourney - with A-Q. What do you think of that call? Would you have made that call in that spot?
Alternate Play
The only other way I think I would have played this is simply to call the 500 on the flop and then check it down with the guy. Obviously that would have been the more conservative approach. With all my aggression on every street, I really felt like I needed to continue it to the river to take the large pot. With the pre-flop call and then bet on the flop, if my opponent is in fact playing a smaller pocket pair which is why he checks the turn and then the river, the most I would have won is the 1,900 (900 pre-flop + 1,000 on the flop with the 500 bet and my call theoretically), since he would have folded to any continued aggression with a smaller pocket pair. But I think as soon as I get caught in the aggression mode with the chips in the pot, I think I am committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
The only thing I'm happy about in this hand is that I pretty much nailed his hand by the river on a bigger Q, so I was pretty sure he would fold to my all-in bet. Obviously he smelled a rat somehow and caught me. Whoever you are, kudos to you sir.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Outplayed, Outsmarted, and Busted
It happens to all of us - you have an opponent right where you want them and they suck out on you. Here's my bad beat story, only because I think it's a bit more of an interesting hand due to the table style.
Playing 1-2 NL when I'm in early position with a live 5 straddle. I look down at QQ and decide to call the 5. I could play it either way - let me explain. I'm short stacked with only 100 sitting in front of me, the table is so loose and aggressive that even a raise to 15 would get at least a few callers behind me, so I figure with this table type I'm either all-in (which most likely won't get the value I'm hoping for) or I call and let the other players dictate the betting.
Loose aggressive oddball player to my left raises to 15 (of course, knew it!), and this prompts another 3 or so players calling (exactly what I want!). Easy decision for me - I'm all-in, and loose aggressive oddball player re-raises all-in, the others fold (about 240 or so in the pot now). Before I go all-in, I thought to myself, this guy is going to think I have AK, since a hand like QQ would have raised in early position - exactly what I want him (or any of the other players) to think in this exact spot. He says to me, "You have AK?" (I laugh in my head). He says, "I have a pair."
Flop is 4-K-x. K on the turn, blank on the river. He has pocket 4-4. Table was outplayed, outsmarted, and ..... I'm busted. Do I get any sympathizers?
Playing 1-2 NL when I'm in early position with a live 5 straddle. I look down at QQ and decide to call the 5. I could play it either way - let me explain. I'm short stacked with only 100 sitting in front of me, the table is so loose and aggressive that even a raise to 15 would get at least a few callers behind me, so I figure with this table type I'm either all-in (which most likely won't get the value I'm hoping for) or I call and let the other players dictate the betting.
Loose aggressive oddball player to my left raises to 15 (of course, knew it!), and this prompts another 3 or so players calling (exactly what I want!). Easy decision for me - I'm all-in, and loose aggressive oddball player re-raises all-in, the others fold (about 240 or so in the pot now). Before I go all-in, I thought to myself, this guy is going to think I have AK, since a hand like QQ would have raised in early position - exactly what I want him (or any of the other players) to think in this exact spot. He says to me, "You have AK?" (I laugh in my head). He says, "I have a pair."
Flop is 4-K-x. K on the turn, blank on the river. He has pocket 4-4. Table was outplayed, outsmarted, and ..... I'm busted. Do I get any sympathizers?
Thursday, March 13, 2008
I Have Nothing (Except A Flush)
Funny Hand of the Year: Home cash game - player bets on the river and opponent folds, saying "I have nothing" while turning over his king high flush. Hysterical, he really thought he had nothing. We decided to split the pot between the two players, I mean why not!!??
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Why I Just Called on the River
I was in a hand in a NL home cash game last night where one player chided me for not raising on the river.
The Hand
In early position I raise to $3 with 7-8, get re-raised to $8 and call along with one other player. Three players and $25 to the flop. Flop comes out Kd-Jc-7d. Check-check [me]-check. Turn is a 2c. Check-check [me]-check. River is a 7h. $25 bet from player in bb, I call, last player thinks and complains and calls too. My trip sevens are the best hand against the last player's J (bb was on a steal) and I take the $100 pot.
Why I Just Called
When the bb bets out on the river after two checks, I knew they were on a steal, so there was no point in raising them. I also know that the only way I'm getting re-raised (if I were to raise the $25 bet to $75 or so) is if the last player had some sort of monster like pocket J-J for a full house or something like that. It doesn't make sense in this scenario that the last player has any King or better hand based on two checks on an otherwise dangerous board. Since I can't get any more out of the bb, the only way I am getting anything out of the third opponent is to smooth call and hope they think I'm calling with Ace high or something (perhaps even two pair with a low pocket pair) and hope they do in fact have a Jack they think could be good, which is exactly what happened. If I raise, I am only getting re-raised by a better hand most likely (although it would be quite odd for a player to have slow played a set all the way to the river on this board, so I would have a decision to make there), and I also figured the $100 pot is enough for me getting lucky on the river.
The Hand
In early position I raise to $3 with 7-8, get re-raised to $8 and call along with one other player. Three players and $25 to the flop. Flop comes out Kd-Jc-7d. Check-check [me]-check. Turn is a 2c. Check-check [me]-check. River is a 7h. $25 bet from player in bb, I call, last player thinks and complains and calls too. My trip sevens are the best hand against the last player's J (bb was on a steal) and I take the $100 pot.
Why I Just Called
When the bb bets out on the river after two checks, I knew they were on a steal, so there was no point in raising them. I also know that the only way I'm getting re-raised (if I were to raise the $25 bet to $75 or so) is if the last player had some sort of monster like pocket J-J for a full house or something like that. It doesn't make sense in this scenario that the last player has any King or better hand based on two checks on an otherwise dangerous board. Since I can't get any more out of the bb, the only way I am getting anything out of the third opponent is to smooth call and hope they think I'm calling with Ace high or something (perhaps even two pair with a low pocket pair) and hope they do in fact have a Jack they think could be good, which is exactly what happened. If I raise, I am only getting re-raised by a better hand most likely (although it would be quite odd for a player to have slow played a set all the way to the river on this board, so I would have a decision to make there), and I also figured the $100 pot is enough for me getting lucky on the river.
Hands That Make You Go Huh?!
I witnessed one of those "huh?!" hands last night in a home NL cash game (I was not involved in the hand). Pre-flop action puts about $30 in the pot from four or so players. Let's call the players involved in the hand players A, B and C as PA, PB and PC (player D folds on the flop). Flop comes out Ad-10d-9c, PA bets $25, PB raises to $80, PC goes all-in for $200, PA stands up and goes into the tank and calls another $175, PB thinks a bit and folds. PC shows As-Jc, PA at the end of this entire hand indicates they had 7d-8d - an open-ended with a flush draw. A-J holds up and wins the $510 pot.
This hand was "huh?!" because you really expect PC to have at least two pair in that spot. With at least two-pair, the all-in play is certainly correct based on that action and flop. The only reasonable explanation for PC's re-raise all-in is that PC made some sick reads on their opponents to make that kind of play, or just hoped to pull off a big play at that time and win the pot right there.
Two intriguing notes about this hand as well. First, PB ends up showing A-J as well. Second, PA and PC make a deal and decide to run it twice (means we flip over a turn and a river two times, essentially putting two boards up).
What I Like About This Hand:
a) I like PB's fold, there really is no way being up against two other all-in players that you can call A-J in that spot.
b) I also like PA's call and deal-making. PA called $175 into a $335 pot, giving them pot odds of even-money (1:1 or 50%) when they were a favorite to win the hand at about 52% with their 13 outs and two cards to come. By running it twice PA gives themselves the slight edge of hitting their draw and getting closer to the real expected outcome of 52%.
This hand was "huh?!" because you really expect PC to have at least two pair in that spot. With at least two-pair, the all-in play is certainly correct based on that action and flop. The only reasonable explanation for PC's re-raise all-in is that PC made some sick reads on their opponents to make that kind of play, or just hoped to pull off a big play at that time and win the pot right there.
Two intriguing notes about this hand as well. First, PB ends up showing A-J as well. Second, PA and PC make a deal and decide to run it twice (means we flip over a turn and a river two times, essentially putting two boards up).
What I Like About This Hand:
a) I like PB's fold, there really is no way being up against two other all-in players that you can call A-J in that spot.
b) I also like PA's call and deal-making. PA called $175 into a $335 pot, giving them pot odds of even-money (1:1 or 50%) when they were a favorite to win the hand at about 52% with their 13 outs and two cards to come. By running it twice PA gives themselves the slight edge of hitting their draw and getting closer to the real expected outcome of 52%.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
It's a Cooler: Aces Full vs.....Aces Full
Last night at a NL home game I was in a hand with one other player...definitely a cooler. In poker, the term "cooler" refers to a hand that is very difficult for one player to get away from, since that player quite reasonably believes they have the best hand, but where the other player is more sure or knows they have the best hand, maybe even the nuts. This is a hand that players can get busted on certainly, and at the very least lose a big portion of their stack. Some quick examples off the top of my head in my experience include:
- Flush over flush on the flop, one player is pushing their baby flush
- Any other flush over flush, especially on a board with straight draws and no pairs
- Straight over straight, on a board with no flush and no pairs
- Full house versus full house
In the hand last night, I made a standard raise in late position with AQ off, dealer calls, blinds fold. Flop comes out A-Q-8 rainbow. I check, button bets, I call. Turn is a blank, I check, button bets, I raise, button calls. River is an Ace, based on chip stacks and pot size, I go all-in, button calls. Button shows A-8 for AAA88 and I'm sitting with AAAQQ.
In this scenario, the button did suspect something or was still slow playing their two pair on the turn, since they only called my raise on the turn, I could easily have something like Q-Q for a set or even A-K in that spot. When the case ace fell on the river, there is only one hand that beats the button's hand: A-Q.
Math for this scenario:
a) Odds to get a flop with A-Q-8 given two known starting hands of A-Q and A-8: ((2/48 X 3/47 X 3/46) X 2) + ((3/48 X 2/47 X 3/46) X 2) + ((3/48 X 3/47 X 2/46) X 2) = 0.0003469 X 3 = 0.0010407 or 0.104% or about 1 in 1,000
b) Odds for the case ace to fall on the river = 1/44 = 0.0227 or 2.27%
c) Odds for this board = (a) X (b) = 0.00104 X 0.0227 = 0.0000236 or 0.00236% or about 2 in 100,000
Given the board at the river, what are the odds the button thinks I could have A-Q?
This is roughly 1/45 X 2/44 = 0.001 X 2 = 0.002 or 0.2% or 2 in 1,000. Definitely a cooler.
With this action, and with the chip stacks and pot size on the river, I could easily be pushing trip aces with K-Q kickers (holding AK), or queens full of aces (holding Q-Q), and of course, aces full of queens (holding A-Q). So, theoretically, button could easily believe they are good 2 of 3 times and have to call with their aces full of eights. Again, definitely a cooler.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Top Two On The Flop Continued...A Combinatorial Perspective
So to continue the discussion about the 5-10-J flop and me holding 10-J. Remember there are two other players in the hand. The question this discussion asks is this, "What are the odds I am beat, or if both players call, what are the odds I will get drawn out on?"
I think this topic is an advanced poker topic that warrants further discussion after this initial post.
Please read the previous post first to understand the hand in question in more detail.
What hands you can likely put your opponents on in this scenario:
1) A big overpair (QQ or KK or AA)
2) A flush draw
3) A straight draw (something like QK or 9Q or 89) [NOTE: The 89 is much less likely, as is the 9Q for the big re-raise.]
4) A set
5) Another two pair, like J-5 or 10-5 (most likely for UTG here)
As a side point, it is more likely for UTG check-raiser to have a made hand like (1) or (4).
First question -- What are the odds I am beat?
Answer: There is only one hand that beats my top two, and that's a set. As in the previous blog entry, the odds of someone having a set are about 0.37% here. As an aside, the odds of the other hands are:
Odds of (1) = 4/47 X 3/46 X 3 = 0.01665 = about 1.7% (of having any of the three overpairs)
Odds of (2) = 11/47 X 10/46 = about 5%
Odds of (3) = 4/47 X 4/46 X 3 = about 0.74% (of having any of the three draws)
Odds of (4) = See last post. About 0.37%
Odds of (5) = 2/47 X 3/46 X 2 = about 0.56% (of having any of the two choices)
And as it turned out, the most likely hands (1) and (2) were the hands that were being held by the other two players.
Second question -- What are the odds I could get drawn out on, if both players call?
Answer: We need to look at the winning percentages of each likely hand.
Re-draw winning percentages with two cards to come:
Odds of (1) = (1/45 + 1/44) = about 4.5% (any of the three overpairs, given a flush draw) to make a set + make a better two pair (can only make a 5) is 3/45 + 3/44 = 13.5% thus 18%
Odds of (2) = (8/45 + 8/44) = about 36% to make the flush (cannot make a 10 clubs) + make a better two-pair = (3/45 X 3/44 X 2) = 0.0091 or 0.91% + make a set of aces = (3/45 X 2/44) = 0.003 or 0.3%, thus total is 36 + .91 + .3 = about 37%
Odds of (3) = (6/45 + 6/44) = about 27% (each of the three straight draws, given the flush draw) to make the straight
Odds of (4) = Re-draw on river to a boat or quads = [if J-J - no quads possible, needs 10, 5, or turn card for a boat = 2/44 + 3/44 + 3/44 = 0.18 or 18%] [if 10-10 - no quads possible, needs 5 or turn card for a boat = 3/44 + 3/44 = 13.6%] [if 5-5, can only get quads to win, 1/44 = 2.3%]
Odds of (5) = Re-draw to a boat = [can only get a 5 to win, 2/44 = 4.6%]
Based on my reads and the most likely hand combinations of (1) and (2) being present, 37 + 18 = 55% (I am only 45% to win) if both players call my all-in. Since player2 was likely to call an allin, this would make UTG player more likely to call another $80. Thus my odds of getting drawn out on are what we might say is a coin flip, which sucks for having only a $6 investment (actually $6 + $4) in the hand. This is another reason I folded. You can still argue against the fold as in my previous post.
But check out the re-draw winning percentages if the hands present were (2) and (3) - the flush draw and a straight draw. If both players call my allin, and these hands are present, I am now only 36% to win!! Let me repeat, this sucks for having a $10 investment in the hand, and another reason why I folded, since I was unsure if could get at least one player off the hand. And again, you can still argue against the fold. Of course in this case I was sure I was not up against both of these hands.
Any other combination I am quite the favorite, unless at least one player has the flush draw, then it really is close to even money.
CONCLUSION
In this type of betting action on the flop, when you're up against at least two other players and faced with an all-in decision on a pot in which you have a small investment, unless you are stone cold or have great reads in which you are quite sure you have a decided winning percentage with two cards to come, it is ok to fold what you are pretty sure is currently the best hand!
I think this topic is an advanced poker topic that warrants further discussion after this initial post.
Please read the previous post first to understand the hand in question in more detail.
What hands you can likely put your opponents on in this scenario:
1) A big overpair (QQ or KK or AA)
2) A flush draw
3) A straight draw (something like QK or 9Q or 89) [NOTE: The 89 is much less likely, as is the 9Q for the big re-raise.]
4) A set
5) Another two pair, like J-5 or 10-5 (most likely for UTG here)
As a side point, it is more likely for UTG check-raiser to have a made hand like (1) or (4).
First question -- What are the odds I am beat?
Answer: There is only one hand that beats my top two, and that's a set. As in the previous blog entry, the odds of someone having a set are about 0.37% here. As an aside, the odds of the other hands are:
Odds of (1) = 4/47 X 3/46 X 3 = 0.01665 = about 1.7% (of having any of the three overpairs)
Odds of (2) = 11/47 X 10/46 = about 5%
Odds of (3) = 4/47 X 4/46 X 3 = about 0.74% (of having any of the three draws)
Odds of (4) = See last post. About 0.37%
Odds of (5) = 2/47 X 3/46 X 2 = about 0.56% (of having any of the two choices)
And as it turned out, the most likely hands (1) and (2) were the hands that were being held by the other two players.
Second question -- What are the odds I could get drawn out on, if both players call?
Answer: We need to look at the winning percentages of each likely hand.
Re-draw winning percentages with two cards to come:
Odds of (1) = (1/45 + 1/44) = about 4.5% (any of the three overpairs, given a flush draw) to make a set + make a better two pair (can only make a 5) is 3/45 + 3/44 = 13.5% thus 18%
Odds of (2) = (8/45 + 8/44) = about 36% to make the flush (cannot make a 10 clubs) + make a better two-pair = (3/45 X 3/44 X 2) = 0.0091 or 0.91% + make a set of aces = (3/45 X 2/44) = 0.003 or 0.3%, thus total is 36 + .91 + .3 = about 37%
Odds of (3) = (6/45 + 6/44) = about 27% (each of the three straight draws, given the flush draw) to make the straight
Odds of (4) = Re-draw on river to a boat or quads = [if J-J - no quads possible, needs 10, 5, or turn card for a boat = 2/44 + 3/44 + 3/44 = 0.18 or 18%] [if 10-10 - no quads possible, needs 5 or turn card for a boat = 3/44 + 3/44 = 13.6%] [if 5-5, can only get quads to win, 1/44 = 2.3%]
Odds of (5) = Re-draw to a boat = [can only get a 5 to win, 2/44 = 4.6%]
Based on my reads and the most likely hand combinations of (1) and (2) being present, 37 + 18 = 55% (I am only 45% to win) if both players call my all-in. Since player2 was likely to call an allin, this would make UTG player more likely to call another $80. Thus my odds of getting drawn out on are what we might say is a coin flip, which sucks for having only a $6 investment (actually $6 + $4) in the hand. This is another reason I folded. You can still argue against the fold as in my previous post.
But check out the re-draw winning percentages if the hands present were (2) and (3) - the flush draw and a straight draw. If both players call my allin, and these hands are present, I am now only 36% to win!! Let me repeat, this sucks for having a $10 investment in the hand, and another reason why I folded, since I was unsure if could get at least one player off the hand. And again, you can still argue against the fold. Of course in this case I was sure I was not up against both of these hands.
Any other combination I am quite the favorite, unless at least one player has the flush draw, then it really is close to even money.
CONCLUSION
In this type of betting action on the flop, when you're up against at least two other players and faced with an all-in decision on a pot in which you have a small investment, unless you are stone cold or have great reads in which you are quite sure you have a decided winning percentage with two cards to come, it is ok to fold what you are pretty sure is currently the best hand!
What Would You Do.....Top Two On The Flop
Small cash NL home game, blinds at $0.50 / $1.00
Pre-flop action:
UTG limps, I'm in middle position and call with 10-J, player raises to $4, UTG calls, I call.
$13.50 to the flop
Flop action:
J-10-5 with two clubs. UTG checks, I bet $6, pre-flop raiser makes it $21, UTG checker re-raises to $80.
I have about $160, player to my left has less (he's all-in if he calls), UTG raiser has more than me.
I fold. Player to my left calls. Club on the river to make the caller's nut club flush.
UTG shows K-K.
Why I folded:
I know I'm a huge favorite against at least one of the players. I did figure UTG for a big overpair, so I had that one nailed. UTG big check-raise essentially puts me all-in, and the issue I had was this: a) I could possibly be up against a set (a set of 5-5-5 most likely if anything) - so the fact that UTG showed K-K shows my read was correct - I knew he had a pocket pair, just not sure which one it was, and b) I figured player to my left with such a large re-raise from my $6 bet would probably call. I hate being against a player's 3-2 odds all-in, that isn't a nothing probability with only $6 invested.
If I was sure I could get player to my left to fold with an all-in then I would make that play.
Arguments against my play:
I understand the easiest and most straightforward argument against my fold, especially considering my reads (if the reader in fact believes that I made those reads): I have the best hand, therefore I should go all-in in this situation. Anything else is just pussy poker. Fair enough.
My own aruguments to support the argument against my very own play:
a) What are you doing playing NL if you're not going all-in with the best hand?
b) You can even figure the approximate odds of someone having a set against you in this situation. Here is my rough calculation:
Remember, the flop is 5-10-J and I have 10-J. Odds of having a set of 5's = 3/47 X 2/46 = 0.00278 (0.278%). Odds of having a set of 10's = 1/47 X 1/46 = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Odds of having a set of J's also = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Thus, odds of having any set on this flop given the fact I have top two is 0.278% + 0.0463% + 0.0463% = 0.37%.
You can't be afraid of a set here. Stop playing scared, and stop playing pussy poker. Well, an argument against that is it doesn't matter if a given situation is literally one in a million, given the situation now exists, the chance that a player has the goods is 50%, isn't it? They either have it or they don't. Well, to tell the truth I really wasn't convinced someone had a set, therefore why the heck did I fold?!
c) By me going all-in, I do the following -- i. I support my table image of being a good solid player who won't put his chips at risk unless he has the best hand, and ii. I create significant fold equity. At least one player should fold here given 3 large re-raises on the flop (my all-in would have made the third), and if I get a caller, I should be happy to be against a draw one should say.
CONCLUSION
With only $6 invested, it was difficult for me to make the all-in play for another $160 or so. It was possible I was up against a set, and if I do get the caller with the draw the draw is only 3-2 dog, not bad odds for him. I don't like being put to the test for my entire stack with such small investments, unless I am stone cold (the absolute nuts), or short stacked or something along those lines. Still, I am at odds with myself here and may not make the same play again. I may go all-in hoping that both players behind me fold (or get a caller, increasing the pot and hope that Hold 'Em remains) and take down the pot uncontested which did swell to about $115 or so.
Pre-flop action:
UTG limps, I'm in middle position and call with 10-J, player raises to $4, UTG calls, I call.
$13.50 to the flop
Flop action:
J-10-5 with two clubs. UTG checks, I bet $6, pre-flop raiser makes it $21, UTG checker re-raises to $80.
I have about $160, player to my left has less (he's all-in if he calls), UTG raiser has more than me.
I fold. Player to my left calls. Club on the river to make the caller's nut club flush.
UTG shows K-K.
Why I folded:
I know I'm a huge favorite against at least one of the players. I did figure UTG for a big overpair, so I had that one nailed. UTG big check-raise essentially puts me all-in, and the issue I had was this: a) I could possibly be up against a set (a set of 5-5-5 most likely if anything) - so the fact that UTG showed K-K shows my read was correct - I knew he had a pocket pair, just not sure which one it was, and b) I figured player to my left with such a large re-raise from my $6 bet would probably call. I hate being against a player's 3-2 odds all-in, that isn't a nothing probability with only $6 invested.
If I was sure I could get player to my left to fold with an all-in then I would make that play.
Arguments against my play:
I understand the easiest and most straightforward argument against my fold, especially considering my reads (if the reader in fact believes that I made those reads): I have the best hand, therefore I should go all-in in this situation. Anything else is just pussy poker. Fair enough.
My own aruguments to support the argument against my very own play:
a) What are you doing playing NL if you're not going all-in with the best hand?
b) You can even figure the approximate odds of someone having a set against you in this situation. Here is my rough calculation:
Remember, the flop is 5-10-J and I have 10-J. Odds of having a set of 5's = 3/47 X 2/46 = 0.00278 (0.278%). Odds of having a set of 10's = 1/47 X 1/46 = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Odds of having a set of J's also = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Thus, odds of having any set on this flop given the fact I have top two is 0.278% + 0.0463% + 0.0463% = 0.37%.
You can't be afraid of a set here. Stop playing scared, and stop playing pussy poker. Well, an argument against that is it doesn't matter if a given situation is literally one in a million, given the situation now exists, the chance that a player has the goods is 50%, isn't it? They either have it or they don't. Well, to tell the truth I really wasn't convinced someone had a set, therefore why the heck did I fold?!
c) By me going all-in, I do the following -- i. I support my table image of being a good solid player who won't put his chips at risk unless he has the best hand, and ii. I create significant fold equity. At least one player should fold here given 3 large re-raises on the flop (my all-in would have made the third), and if I get a caller, I should be happy to be against a draw one should say.
CONCLUSION
With only $6 invested, it was difficult for me to make the all-in play for another $160 or so. It was possible I was up against a set, and if I do get the caller with the draw the draw is only 3-2 dog, not bad odds for him. I don't like being put to the test for my entire stack with such small investments, unless I am stone cold (the absolute nuts), or short stacked or something along those lines. Still, I am at odds with myself here and may not make the same play again. I may go all-in hoping that both players behind me fold (or get a caller, increasing the pot and hope that Hold 'Em remains) and take down the pot uncontested which did swell to about $115 or so.
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