Geting It All-In

To me, this hand is not really very interesting, but I thought I would mention it for some food for thought.

1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.

There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.

I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.