In this NL cash game I made 3 straights in the first hour, and another straight for 4 straights within two hours. I swear this is true, on the second straight in the first 30 minutes I said to myself "I'm gonna get stomped by someone else who makes a straight against me when I also have a big hand later tonight." Here's my sad story and how I should have played differently.
I get to limp in the SB with 6-8 off with four players to the flop. Flop is 5-6-8 off and I come out betting. I get min raised by the BB, all others fold back to me and I call. An ace on the turn, board has four suits. I know the player in the BB pretty well, so I check, he bets the pot, and I think for 5 minutes. I go all-in (there is $120 in the pot, I have $180 behind and BB has another $61). He shows 4-7 for a flopped straight and the river doesn't get me a boat.
On the turn, I eliminate the nuts (7-9) and any over pairs, as I didn't think the BB would bet the nuts on this turn so aggressively, and would have raised any significant over-pairs pre-flop. BB could easily have just a 7, like A-7 (he has top pair on the turn with an open-ended) but I also eliminate that type of hand as I thought he would have bet something more like half to two-thirds of the pot. So I put him on the 4-7 or a 5-5 (for a set) - both hands which beat me - or something like a 5-7 (for a pair and an open-ender). I didn't eliminate the 5-5 completely, the betting pattern was certainly indicative of that type of hand as well, but the math says that the 4-7 is actually more likely (I think it's about 3x more likely to have the 4-7 than the 5-5, maybe 6.4% to 2.4%). But the thing is I also thought he could have been playing a smaller two-pair (like 5-6). I was a little stumped when the ace on the turn came out and he bet the pot ($60) - stumped in the sense that I didn't think that board would fear anything for someone with a 4-7 (the odds that I have a 7-9 for the nuts given that he knows he has the 4-7 is about 4.8%). Based on the pot size and his chip stack (lower than mine), I ignored my instincts about the 4-7 and went all-in. I thought it was a "fold or all-in" type of scenario and chose the latter sadly.
I hate when I don't follow my instincts and deductions (and the fact that I told myself I would lose a big pot in this exact way earlier in the night), but I think I could have played the hand differently (other than folding outright after the $60 bet on the turn). In one scenario, I could have re-raised my opponent's min-raise on the flop. One reason why I don't necessarily like that play is if I am re-raised, the same thinking applies - he could have a set or the 4-7 in that spot too, as easily as a lower two-pair or something like the 5-7. Instead, I like the play where on the turn, I come out betting. There was about $60 in the pot at that point, I could have bet anything, like maybe $25 or $30 to gauge where I am. At that point: a) My opponent raises me again, and he would likely raise to say $75 if he had the 4-7 or 5-5, or he may even go all-in at that point (since $75 would be more than half of his stack anyway). Then I have an easy fold. In this case I end up losing about $50. Or, b) He could simply smooth call, putting me on any other hand that is obviously weaker than his, hoping to get another bet out of me on the river assuming no scare cards (like the board pairing) come on the river. Let's say he smooth calls a $30 bet from me so now there is $120 in the pot (and I have $50 committed). On the river, my opponent has $91 left, so I could bet another $30 (I don't think checking is the right thing, even though you suspect you may be beat by a monster), and if he goes all-in, I have an easy fold. If he just calls (for some reason afraid that I have the stone cold nuts - a higher straight), I end up losing $80 total in this scenario - less than the $140 I really lost.
What do you think?
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Geting It All-In
To me, this hand is not really very interesting, but I thought I would mention it for some food for thought.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Ivey v Cunningham
I watch poker hands play out on YouTube from time to time. This is one of the best hands I've seen. What I love about this is how both players play this hand on every street beginning with pre-flop action, and the ending is pure poker mastery - again, the way both players played it. Honorable mention goes to Matusow who also played his hand perfectly.
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Aggressive Playing Results in a Bust
I don't like to admit it, because quite frankly it doesn't happen often (hardly ever), but I think I was outplayed on this hand. The end result is that I was busted very early in a small buy-in tournament ($100). I went into this one thinking I was going for the gold and wanted to chip up early (blinds at 20 minutes); Well, that didn't work out as planned. Moral of the story: Always play great poker. Like I need to teach myself that lesson again (apparently I do). In this hand, I'm going to write it with you only knowing my cards, then I'll tell you the opponent's cards at the end.
The PLAY
Blinds at 50-100. Fold to me in middle position, I open raise with Q-9d for 300. Folds around to SB who thinks about it and calls, BB calls. 900 to flop. Flop is Q-x-x (rainbow), SB checks, BB bets 500, I raise to 1,500, SB folds, BB calls. 3,900 to turn. Turn is a K (still rainbow board, no straight draws). BB checks, I bet 2,100, BB thinks a bit and calls. 8,100 to river. River is a small blank, BB checks, I put the rest of it in (5,300), BB thinks a bit and calls. I'm out.
The ANALYSIS
When BB bets on the flop, he could be betting with anything there - you know the range of hands already: a medium pocket pair (he didn't re-raise pre-flop), a big ace (including A-K), maybe a queen (Q-J, Q-K, or perhaps A-Q). I raised to show continued strength and get some more information, as well as knock out SB just in case he was thinking about sticking around, so when BB calls I have a good chance I'm beat right there. I narrow the hands down to a bigger Q, and possibly a big pair like J-J just in case he doesn't believe me and is putting me on A-K. When the K comes on the turn and he check-calls my bet, it's pretty clear I am beat at that point - with a bigger Q or Q-K for top two (I eliminate A-K, K-K at this point, but it is also possible he has A-A). That would explain both actions so far from my opponent. When he checks on the river though, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a monster (top two or even a set) so the only way I could win the hand is to go all-in and hope he only has a Q and will fold due to the K out there. Of course, I also thought he could be checking because I've been aggressive on every street - pre-flop, flop, and turn. I go all-in and he calls off the rest of his stack - very early in the tourney - with A-Q. What do you think of that call? Would you have made that call in that spot?
Alternate Play
The only other way I think I would have played this is simply to call the 500 on the flop and then check it down with the guy. Obviously that would have been the more conservative approach. With all my aggression on every street, I really felt like I needed to continue it to the river to take the large pot. With the pre-flop call and then bet on the flop, if my opponent is in fact playing a smaller pocket pair which is why he checks the turn and then the river, the most I would have won is the 1,900 (900 pre-flop + 1,000 on the flop with the 500 bet and my call theoretically), since he would have folded to any continued aggression with a smaller pocket pair. But I think as soon as I get caught in the aggression mode with the chips in the pot, I think I am committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
The only thing I'm happy about in this hand is that I pretty much nailed his hand by the river on a bigger Q, so I was pretty sure he would fold to my all-in bet. Obviously he smelled a rat somehow and caught me. Whoever you are, kudos to you sir.
The PLAY
Blinds at 50-100. Fold to me in middle position, I open raise with Q-9d for 300. Folds around to SB who thinks about it and calls, BB calls. 900 to flop. Flop is Q-x-x (rainbow), SB checks, BB bets 500, I raise to 1,500, SB folds, BB calls. 3,900 to turn. Turn is a K (still rainbow board, no straight draws). BB checks, I bet 2,100, BB thinks a bit and calls. 8,100 to river. River is a small blank, BB checks, I put the rest of it in (5,300), BB thinks a bit and calls. I'm out.
The ANALYSIS
When BB bets on the flop, he could be betting with anything there - you know the range of hands already: a medium pocket pair (he didn't re-raise pre-flop), a big ace (including A-K), maybe a queen (Q-J, Q-K, or perhaps A-Q). I raised to show continued strength and get some more information, as well as knock out SB just in case he was thinking about sticking around, so when BB calls I have a good chance I'm beat right there. I narrow the hands down to a bigger Q, and possibly a big pair like J-J just in case he doesn't believe me and is putting me on A-K. When the K comes on the turn and he check-calls my bet, it's pretty clear I am beat at that point - with a bigger Q or Q-K for top two (I eliminate A-K, K-K at this point, but it is also possible he has A-A). That would explain both actions so far from my opponent. When he checks on the river though, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a monster (top two or even a set) so the only way I could win the hand is to go all-in and hope he only has a Q and will fold due to the K out there. Of course, I also thought he could be checking because I've been aggressive on every street - pre-flop, flop, and turn. I go all-in and he calls off the rest of his stack - very early in the tourney - with A-Q. What do you think of that call? Would you have made that call in that spot?
Alternate Play
The only other way I think I would have played this is simply to call the 500 on the flop and then check it down with the guy. Obviously that would have been the more conservative approach. With all my aggression on every street, I really felt like I needed to continue it to the river to take the large pot. With the pre-flop call and then bet on the flop, if my opponent is in fact playing a smaller pocket pair which is why he checks the turn and then the river, the most I would have won is the 1,900 (900 pre-flop + 1,000 on the flop with the 500 bet and my call theoretically), since he would have folded to any continued aggression with a smaller pocket pair. But I think as soon as I get caught in the aggression mode with the chips in the pot, I think I am committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
The only thing I'm happy about in this hand is that I pretty much nailed his hand by the river on a bigger Q, so I was pretty sure he would fold to my all-in bet. Obviously he smelled a rat somehow and caught me. Whoever you are, kudos to you sir.
Greyhound Bus Service Note
Greyhound Bus Service between NYC (Port Authority) and Atlantic City is $33 round-trip (purchase at ticket counter 79 at the Port Authority) then you get a $20 cash voucher when you get to the casino. What a great round-trip deal for $13!
Travel tip: When departing from NYC, try to get there at least 30 minutes prior to departure time, as the line fills up pretty fast. When departing from A/C, you want to try and leave from a **Casino** departure point instead of the Bus Terminal, since the buses pick up passengers first from the casinos, so by the time they get to the bus terminal the bus could be nearly full.
Scroll to the bottom of this blog for links to the bus schedules.
Travel tip: When departing from NYC, try to get there at least 30 minutes prior to departure time, as the line fills up pretty fast. When departing from A/C, you want to try and leave from a **Casino** departure point instead of the Bus Terminal, since the buses pick up passengers first from the casinos, so by the time they get to the bus terminal the bus could be nearly full.
Scroll to the bottom of this blog for links to the bus schedules.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
WSOP Satellite...Cancelled (Boo Hoo)
Well, Kristin's satellite to the WSOP Main Event is cancelled. Why? She got engaged (and is getting married in the summer). Can you believe that? Unreal. But seriously, I'm really happy for her and Doug and wish them all the best. Congratulations! At least she gave me my $550 from the super-satellite win (from this tourney).
Outplayed, Outsmarted, and Busted
It happens to all of us - you have an opponent right where you want them and they suck out on you. Here's my bad beat story, only because I think it's a bit more of an interesting hand due to the table style.
Playing 1-2 NL when I'm in early position with a live 5 straddle. I look down at QQ and decide to call the 5. I could play it either way - let me explain. I'm short stacked with only 100 sitting in front of me, the table is so loose and aggressive that even a raise to 15 would get at least a few callers behind me, so I figure with this table type I'm either all-in (which most likely won't get the value I'm hoping for) or I call and let the other players dictate the betting.
Loose aggressive oddball player to my left raises to 15 (of course, knew it!), and this prompts another 3 or so players calling (exactly what I want!). Easy decision for me - I'm all-in, and loose aggressive oddball player re-raises all-in, the others fold (about 240 or so in the pot now). Before I go all-in, I thought to myself, this guy is going to think I have AK, since a hand like QQ would have raised in early position - exactly what I want him (or any of the other players) to think in this exact spot. He says to me, "You have AK?" (I laugh in my head). He says, "I have a pair."
Flop is 4-K-x. K on the turn, blank on the river. He has pocket 4-4. Table was outplayed, outsmarted, and ..... I'm busted. Do I get any sympathizers?
Playing 1-2 NL when I'm in early position with a live 5 straddle. I look down at QQ and decide to call the 5. I could play it either way - let me explain. I'm short stacked with only 100 sitting in front of me, the table is so loose and aggressive that even a raise to 15 would get at least a few callers behind me, so I figure with this table type I'm either all-in (which most likely won't get the value I'm hoping for) or I call and let the other players dictate the betting.
Loose aggressive oddball player to my left raises to 15 (of course, knew it!), and this prompts another 3 or so players calling (exactly what I want!). Easy decision for me - I'm all-in, and loose aggressive oddball player re-raises all-in, the others fold (about 240 or so in the pot now). Before I go all-in, I thought to myself, this guy is going to think I have AK, since a hand like QQ would have raised in early position - exactly what I want him (or any of the other players) to think in this exact spot. He says to me, "You have AK?" (I laugh in my head). He says, "I have a pair."
Flop is 4-K-x. K on the turn, blank on the river. He has pocket 4-4. Table was outplayed, outsmarted, and ..... I'm busted. Do I get any sympathizers?
Thursday, March 13, 2008
A Royal Flush!!!
In poker, as in life, sometimes you just have to play what you're dealt. Sometimes you play brilliantly and still get unlucky. Sometimes you get lucky and just can't seem to maximize value at all. But sometimes the planets align and everything just falls into place. On September 6, 2007 I got dealt the very best hand - I met this girl - and to top it all off - on March 1, 2008 she said YES! Yes, readers, I got engaged on March 1 to the greatest girl alive. Now that's what I call a royal flush - for life.
I Have Nothing (Except A Flush)
Funny Hand of the Year: Home cash game - player bets on the river and opponent folds, saying "I have nothing" while turning over his king high flush. Hysterical, he really thought he had nothing. We decided to split the pot between the two players, I mean why not!!??
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
I'm A Super-Satellite Champ!
Last night I took down a KBCR 2008 WSOP super-satellite. (Check the calendar on the bottom of the page for more information.) In this series of home tourneys lasting for 20 weeks, each weekly sit-n-go is $55 and the winner gets a seat at the $550 satellite around June. The winner of the June satellite goes to the WSOP Main Event with $1,000 in cash to help with expenses.
There is nothing too spectacular about last night's win. I was playing well and chipped up early against a dead money player stacking off to me. Overall I made good reads and good plays. There was no serious confrontation until I got heads-up as a slight dog (25k to 15k in chips). I got lucky early on when I pushed with an open-ended on the flop and my opponent called with top pair, and ended up turning the straight. We played close to 1.5 hours heads-up. It was a good match and quite a worthy opponent. I'm looking forward to the satellite to the WSOP!
There is nothing too spectacular about last night's win. I was playing well and chipped up early against a dead money player stacking off to me. Overall I made good reads and good plays. There was no serious confrontation until I got heads-up as a slight dog (25k to 15k in chips). I got lucky early on when I pushed with an open-ended on the flop and my opponent called with top pair, and ended up turning the straight. We played close to 1.5 hours heads-up. It was a good match and quite a worthy opponent. I'm looking forward to the satellite to the WSOP!
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Pre-flop Action: Pot Odds Calls
When you have a mediocre hand but there are plenty of callers in front of you, most poker players end up calling too, setting the stage for late position players to call as well. In these situations, should you always call? Since that topic alone can be quite lengthy, let me just take one scenario.
Let's say you are in middle position with 7-8 suited and there are a bunch of limpers in front of you. Putting the possibility of a raise here aside, should you call? If there are already three callers, right there you are getting 3:1 on your money when you are likely only a 2:1 dog. So from a pot odds perspective you should call. And your implied odds are greater than that of course. Implied odds in this scenario means if you call, do you think other players will call as well? If another four players end up calling (for example, two other players and the blinds), now you're getting 7:1 on your money - pretty good pot odds! Poker players know this, and this is why limped pots can become an epidemic on some tables.
Are you really getting pot odds to call? First of all, what are the odds of getting a 7 or 8 high flop? We can re-phrase the question and ask, "What are the chances a card higher than an 8 will come out"? In my simple calculation, there are six types of cards higher than an 8, and three chances to hit one of those cards. That math works out to be (6 X 4)/49 + (6 X 4)/48 + (6 X 4)/47 or roughly 50%. And what are the odds of getting a flop with at best 8 high and no other higher cards? (7 X 4 - 2)/49 X 25/48 X 24/47 or roughly 14%, or 6:1. So you are in fact getting pot odds to call, you are 6:1 to get a favorable flop and you are getting 7:1 on your money.
Is hitting a 7 or 8 high flop good enough though? The implication in this question is if you may be up against a high pocket pair like 9-9 or 10-10 or perhaps even J-J (on a 7 or 8 high board). We assume that QQ or better would have raised pre-flop. The odds of getting one of those pocket pairs knowing your hole cards is 4/50 X 3/49 = 0.0049 or 0.49% or about 200:1. The chances your opponent has one of the three types of pocket pairs mentioned is 200:3 or 1.5%.
I hope the reader can use the information in this entry to make some better decisions on a limped pre-flop action.
Let's say you are in middle position with 7-8 suited and there are a bunch of limpers in front of you. Putting the possibility of a raise here aside, should you call? If there are already three callers, right there you are getting 3:1 on your money when you are likely only a 2:1 dog. So from a pot odds perspective you should call. And your implied odds are greater than that of course. Implied odds in this scenario means if you call, do you think other players will call as well? If another four players end up calling (for example, two other players and the blinds), now you're getting 7:1 on your money - pretty good pot odds! Poker players know this, and this is why limped pots can become an epidemic on some tables.
Are you really getting pot odds to call? First of all, what are the odds of getting a 7 or 8 high flop? We can re-phrase the question and ask, "What are the chances a card higher than an 8 will come out"? In my simple calculation, there are six types of cards higher than an 8, and three chances to hit one of those cards. That math works out to be (6 X 4)/49 + (6 X 4)/48 + (6 X 4)/47 or roughly 50%. And what are the odds of getting a flop with at best 8 high and no other higher cards? (7 X 4 - 2)/49 X 25/48 X 24/47 or roughly 14%, or 6:1. So you are in fact getting pot odds to call, you are 6:1 to get a favorable flop and you are getting 7:1 on your money.
Is hitting a 7 or 8 high flop good enough though? The implication in this question is if you may be up against a high pocket pair like 9-9 or 10-10 or perhaps even J-J (on a 7 or 8 high board). We assume that QQ or better would have raised pre-flop. The odds of getting one of those pocket pairs knowing your hole cards is 4/50 X 3/49 = 0.0049 or 0.49% or about 200:1. The chances your opponent has one of the three types of pocket pairs mentioned is 200:3 or 1.5%.
I hope the reader can use the information in this entry to make some better decisions on a limped pre-flop action.
Why I Just Called on the River
I was in a hand in a NL home cash game last night where one player chided me for not raising on the river.
The Hand
In early position I raise to $3 with 7-8, get re-raised to $8 and call along with one other player. Three players and $25 to the flop. Flop comes out Kd-Jc-7d. Check-check [me]-check. Turn is a 2c. Check-check [me]-check. River is a 7h. $25 bet from player in bb, I call, last player thinks and complains and calls too. My trip sevens are the best hand against the last player's J (bb was on a steal) and I take the $100 pot.
Why I Just Called
When the bb bets out on the river after two checks, I knew they were on a steal, so there was no point in raising them. I also know that the only way I'm getting re-raised (if I were to raise the $25 bet to $75 or so) is if the last player had some sort of monster like pocket J-J for a full house or something like that. It doesn't make sense in this scenario that the last player has any King or better hand based on two checks on an otherwise dangerous board. Since I can't get any more out of the bb, the only way I am getting anything out of the third opponent is to smooth call and hope they think I'm calling with Ace high or something (perhaps even two pair with a low pocket pair) and hope they do in fact have a Jack they think could be good, which is exactly what happened. If I raise, I am only getting re-raised by a better hand most likely (although it would be quite odd for a player to have slow played a set all the way to the river on this board, so I would have a decision to make there), and I also figured the $100 pot is enough for me getting lucky on the river.
The Hand
In early position I raise to $3 with 7-8, get re-raised to $8 and call along with one other player. Three players and $25 to the flop. Flop comes out Kd-Jc-7d. Check-check [me]-check. Turn is a 2c. Check-check [me]-check. River is a 7h. $25 bet from player in bb, I call, last player thinks and complains and calls too. My trip sevens are the best hand against the last player's J (bb was on a steal) and I take the $100 pot.
Why I Just Called
When the bb bets out on the river after two checks, I knew they were on a steal, so there was no point in raising them. I also know that the only way I'm getting re-raised (if I were to raise the $25 bet to $75 or so) is if the last player had some sort of monster like pocket J-J for a full house or something like that. It doesn't make sense in this scenario that the last player has any King or better hand based on two checks on an otherwise dangerous board. Since I can't get any more out of the bb, the only way I am getting anything out of the third opponent is to smooth call and hope they think I'm calling with Ace high or something (perhaps even two pair with a low pocket pair) and hope they do in fact have a Jack they think could be good, which is exactly what happened. If I raise, I am only getting re-raised by a better hand most likely (although it would be quite odd for a player to have slow played a set all the way to the river on this board, so I would have a decision to make there), and I also figured the $100 pot is enough for me getting lucky on the river.
Hands That Make You Go Huh?!
I witnessed one of those "huh?!" hands last night in a home NL cash game (I was not involved in the hand). Pre-flop action puts about $30 in the pot from four or so players. Let's call the players involved in the hand players A, B and C as PA, PB and PC (player D folds on the flop). Flop comes out Ad-10d-9c, PA bets $25, PB raises to $80, PC goes all-in for $200, PA stands up and goes into the tank and calls another $175, PB thinks a bit and folds. PC shows As-Jc, PA at the end of this entire hand indicates they had 7d-8d - an open-ended with a flush draw. A-J holds up and wins the $510 pot.
This hand was "huh?!" because you really expect PC to have at least two pair in that spot. With at least two-pair, the all-in play is certainly correct based on that action and flop. The only reasonable explanation for PC's re-raise all-in is that PC made some sick reads on their opponents to make that kind of play, or just hoped to pull off a big play at that time and win the pot right there.
Two intriguing notes about this hand as well. First, PB ends up showing A-J as well. Second, PA and PC make a deal and decide to run it twice (means we flip over a turn and a river two times, essentially putting two boards up).
What I Like About This Hand:
a) I like PB's fold, there really is no way being up against two other all-in players that you can call A-J in that spot.
b) I also like PA's call and deal-making. PA called $175 into a $335 pot, giving them pot odds of even-money (1:1 or 50%) when they were a favorite to win the hand at about 52% with their 13 outs and two cards to come. By running it twice PA gives themselves the slight edge of hitting their draw and getting closer to the real expected outcome of 52%.
This hand was "huh?!" because you really expect PC to have at least two pair in that spot. With at least two-pair, the all-in play is certainly correct based on that action and flop. The only reasonable explanation for PC's re-raise all-in is that PC made some sick reads on their opponents to make that kind of play, or just hoped to pull off a big play at that time and win the pot right there.
Two intriguing notes about this hand as well. First, PB ends up showing A-J as well. Second, PA and PC make a deal and decide to run it twice (means we flip over a turn and a river two times, essentially putting two boards up).
What I Like About This Hand:
a) I like PB's fold, there really is no way being up against two other all-in players that you can call A-J in that spot.
b) I also like PA's call and deal-making. PA called $175 into a $335 pot, giving them pot odds of even-money (1:1 or 50%) when they were a favorite to win the hand at about 52% with their 13 outs and two cards to come. By running it twice PA gives themselves the slight edge of hitting their draw and getting closer to the real expected outcome of 52%.
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