Pre-flop Action: Pot Odds Calls

When you have a mediocre hand but there are plenty of callers in front of you, most poker players end up calling too, setting the stage for late position players to call as well. In these situations, should you always call? Since that topic alone can be quite lengthy, let me just take one scenario.

Let's say you are in middle position with 7-8 suited and there are a bunch of limpers in front of you. Putting the possibility of a raise here aside, should you call? If there are already three callers, right there you are getting 3:1 on your money when you are likely only a 2:1 dog. So from a pot odds perspective you should call. And your implied odds are greater than that of course. Implied odds in this scenario means if you call, do you think other players will call as well? If another four players end up calling (for example, two other players and the blinds), now you're getting 7:1 on your money - pretty good pot odds! Poker players know this, and this is why limped pots can become an epidemic on some tables.

Are you really getting pot odds to call? First of all, what are the odds of getting a 7 or 8 high flop? We can re-phrase the question and ask, "What are the chances a card higher than an 8 will come out"? In my simple calculation, there are six types of cards higher than an 8, and three chances to hit one of those cards. That math works out to be (6 X 4)/49 + (6 X 4)/48 + (6 X 4)/47 or roughly 50%. And what are the odds of getting a flop with at best 8 high and no other higher cards? (7 X 4 - 2)/49 X 25/48 X 24/47 or roughly 14%, or 6:1. So you are in fact getting pot odds to call, you are 6:1 to get a favorable flop and you are getting 7:1 on your money.

Is hitting a 7 or 8 high flop good enough though? The implication in this question is if you may be up against a high pocket pair like 9-9 or 10-10 or perhaps even J-J (on a 7 or 8 high board). We assume that QQ or better would have raised pre-flop. The odds of getting one of those pocket pairs knowing your hole cards is 4/50 X 3/49 = 0.0049 or 0.49% or about 200:1. The chances your opponent has one of the three types of pocket pairs mentioned is 200:3 or 1.5%.

I hope the reader can use the information in this entry to make some better decisions on a limped pre-flop action.