Last night I took down a KBCR 2008 WSOP super-satellite. (Check the calendar on the bottom of the page for more information.) In this series of home tourneys lasting for 20 weeks, each weekly sit-n-go is $55 and the winner gets a seat at the $550 satellite around June. The winner of the June satellite goes to the WSOP Main Event with $1,000 in cash to help with expenses.
There is nothing too spectacular about last night's win. I was playing well and chipped up early against a dead money player stacking off to me. Overall I made good reads and good plays. There was no serious confrontation until I got heads-up as a slight dog (25k to 15k in chips). I got lucky early on when I pushed with an open-ended on the flop and my opponent called with top pair, and ended up turning the straight. We played close to 1.5 hours heads-up. It was a good match and quite a worthy opponent. I'm looking forward to the satellite to the WSOP!
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Pre-flop Action: Pot Odds Calls
When you have a mediocre hand but there are plenty of callers in front of you, most poker players end up calling too, setting the stage for late position players to call as well. In these situations, should you always call? Since that topic alone can be quite lengthy, let me just take one scenario.
Let's say you are in middle position with 7-8 suited and there are a bunch of limpers in front of you. Putting the possibility of a raise here aside, should you call? If there are already three callers, right there you are getting 3:1 on your money when you are likely only a 2:1 dog. So from a pot odds perspective you should call. And your implied odds are greater than that of course. Implied odds in this scenario means if you call, do you think other players will call as well? If another four players end up calling (for example, two other players and the blinds), now you're getting 7:1 on your money - pretty good pot odds! Poker players know this, and this is why limped pots can become an epidemic on some tables.
Are you really getting pot odds to call? First of all, what are the odds of getting a 7 or 8 high flop? We can re-phrase the question and ask, "What are the chances a card higher than an 8 will come out"? In my simple calculation, there are six types of cards higher than an 8, and three chances to hit one of those cards. That math works out to be (6 X 4)/49 + (6 X 4)/48 + (6 X 4)/47 or roughly 50%. And what are the odds of getting a flop with at best 8 high and no other higher cards? (7 X 4 - 2)/49 X 25/48 X 24/47 or roughly 14%, or 6:1. So you are in fact getting pot odds to call, you are 6:1 to get a favorable flop and you are getting 7:1 on your money.
Is hitting a 7 or 8 high flop good enough though? The implication in this question is if you may be up against a high pocket pair like 9-9 or 10-10 or perhaps even J-J (on a 7 or 8 high board). We assume that QQ or better would have raised pre-flop. The odds of getting one of those pocket pairs knowing your hole cards is 4/50 X 3/49 = 0.0049 or 0.49% or about 200:1. The chances your opponent has one of the three types of pocket pairs mentioned is 200:3 or 1.5%.
I hope the reader can use the information in this entry to make some better decisions on a limped pre-flop action.
Let's say you are in middle position with 7-8 suited and there are a bunch of limpers in front of you. Putting the possibility of a raise here aside, should you call? If there are already three callers, right there you are getting 3:1 on your money when you are likely only a 2:1 dog. So from a pot odds perspective you should call. And your implied odds are greater than that of course. Implied odds in this scenario means if you call, do you think other players will call as well? If another four players end up calling (for example, two other players and the blinds), now you're getting 7:1 on your money - pretty good pot odds! Poker players know this, and this is why limped pots can become an epidemic on some tables.
Are you really getting pot odds to call? First of all, what are the odds of getting a 7 or 8 high flop? We can re-phrase the question and ask, "What are the chances a card higher than an 8 will come out"? In my simple calculation, there are six types of cards higher than an 8, and three chances to hit one of those cards. That math works out to be (6 X 4)/49 + (6 X 4)/48 + (6 X 4)/47 or roughly 50%. And what are the odds of getting a flop with at best 8 high and no other higher cards? (7 X 4 - 2)/49 X 25/48 X 24/47 or roughly 14%, or 6:1. So you are in fact getting pot odds to call, you are 6:1 to get a favorable flop and you are getting 7:1 on your money.
Is hitting a 7 or 8 high flop good enough though? The implication in this question is if you may be up against a high pocket pair like 9-9 or 10-10 or perhaps even J-J (on a 7 or 8 high board). We assume that QQ or better would have raised pre-flop. The odds of getting one of those pocket pairs knowing your hole cards is 4/50 X 3/49 = 0.0049 or 0.49% or about 200:1. The chances your opponent has one of the three types of pocket pairs mentioned is 200:3 or 1.5%.
I hope the reader can use the information in this entry to make some better decisions on a limped pre-flop action.
Why I Just Called on the River
I was in a hand in a NL home cash game last night where one player chided me for not raising on the river.
The Hand
In early position I raise to $3 with 7-8, get re-raised to $8 and call along with one other player. Three players and $25 to the flop. Flop comes out Kd-Jc-7d. Check-check [me]-check. Turn is a 2c. Check-check [me]-check. River is a 7h. $25 bet from player in bb, I call, last player thinks and complains and calls too. My trip sevens are the best hand against the last player's J (bb was on a steal) and I take the $100 pot.
Why I Just Called
When the bb bets out on the river after two checks, I knew they were on a steal, so there was no point in raising them. I also know that the only way I'm getting re-raised (if I were to raise the $25 bet to $75 or so) is if the last player had some sort of monster like pocket J-J for a full house or something like that. It doesn't make sense in this scenario that the last player has any King or better hand based on two checks on an otherwise dangerous board. Since I can't get any more out of the bb, the only way I am getting anything out of the third opponent is to smooth call and hope they think I'm calling with Ace high or something (perhaps even two pair with a low pocket pair) and hope they do in fact have a Jack they think could be good, which is exactly what happened. If I raise, I am only getting re-raised by a better hand most likely (although it would be quite odd for a player to have slow played a set all the way to the river on this board, so I would have a decision to make there), and I also figured the $100 pot is enough for me getting lucky on the river.
The Hand
In early position I raise to $3 with 7-8, get re-raised to $8 and call along with one other player. Three players and $25 to the flop. Flop comes out Kd-Jc-7d. Check-check [me]-check. Turn is a 2c. Check-check [me]-check. River is a 7h. $25 bet from player in bb, I call, last player thinks and complains and calls too. My trip sevens are the best hand against the last player's J (bb was on a steal) and I take the $100 pot.
Why I Just Called
When the bb bets out on the river after two checks, I knew they were on a steal, so there was no point in raising them. I also know that the only way I'm getting re-raised (if I were to raise the $25 bet to $75 or so) is if the last player had some sort of monster like pocket J-J for a full house or something like that. It doesn't make sense in this scenario that the last player has any King or better hand based on two checks on an otherwise dangerous board. Since I can't get any more out of the bb, the only way I am getting anything out of the third opponent is to smooth call and hope they think I'm calling with Ace high or something (perhaps even two pair with a low pocket pair) and hope they do in fact have a Jack they think could be good, which is exactly what happened. If I raise, I am only getting re-raised by a better hand most likely (although it would be quite odd for a player to have slow played a set all the way to the river on this board, so I would have a decision to make there), and I also figured the $100 pot is enough for me getting lucky on the river.
Hands That Make You Go Huh?!
I witnessed one of those "huh?!" hands last night in a home NL cash game (I was not involved in the hand). Pre-flop action puts about $30 in the pot from four or so players. Let's call the players involved in the hand players A, B and C as PA, PB and PC (player D folds on the flop). Flop comes out Ad-10d-9c, PA bets $25, PB raises to $80, PC goes all-in for $200, PA stands up and goes into the tank and calls another $175, PB thinks a bit and folds. PC shows As-Jc, PA at the end of this entire hand indicates they had 7d-8d - an open-ended with a flush draw. A-J holds up and wins the $510 pot.
This hand was "huh?!" because you really expect PC to have at least two pair in that spot. With at least two-pair, the all-in play is certainly correct based on that action and flop. The only reasonable explanation for PC's re-raise all-in is that PC made some sick reads on their opponents to make that kind of play, or just hoped to pull off a big play at that time and win the pot right there.
Two intriguing notes about this hand as well. First, PB ends up showing A-J as well. Second, PA and PC make a deal and decide to run it twice (means we flip over a turn and a river two times, essentially putting two boards up).
What I Like About This Hand:
a) I like PB's fold, there really is no way being up against two other all-in players that you can call A-J in that spot.
b) I also like PA's call and deal-making. PA called $175 into a $335 pot, giving them pot odds of even-money (1:1 or 50%) when they were a favorite to win the hand at about 52% with their 13 outs and two cards to come. By running it twice PA gives themselves the slight edge of hitting their draw and getting closer to the real expected outcome of 52%.
This hand was "huh?!" because you really expect PC to have at least two pair in that spot. With at least two-pair, the all-in play is certainly correct based on that action and flop. The only reasonable explanation for PC's re-raise all-in is that PC made some sick reads on their opponents to make that kind of play, or just hoped to pull off a big play at that time and win the pot right there.
Two intriguing notes about this hand as well. First, PB ends up showing A-J as well. Second, PA and PC make a deal and decide to run it twice (means we flip over a turn and a river two times, essentially putting two boards up).
What I Like About This Hand:
a) I like PB's fold, there really is no way being up against two other all-in players that you can call A-J in that spot.
b) I also like PA's call and deal-making. PA called $175 into a $335 pot, giving them pot odds of even-money (1:1 or 50%) when they were a favorite to win the hand at about 52% with their 13 outs and two cards to come. By running it twice PA gives themselves the slight edge of hitting their draw and getting closer to the real expected outcome of 52%.
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