Small cash NL home game, blinds at $0.50 / $1.00
Pre-flop action:
UTG limps, I'm in middle position and call with 10-J, player raises to $4, UTG calls, I call.
$13.50 to the flop
Flop action:
J-10-5 with two clubs. UTG checks, I bet $6, pre-flop raiser makes it $21, UTG checker re-raises to $80.
I have about $160, player to my left has less (he's all-in if he calls), UTG raiser has more than me.
I fold. Player to my left calls. Club on the river to make the caller's nut club flush.
UTG shows K-K.
Why I folded:
I know I'm a huge favorite against at least one of the players. I did figure UTG for a big overpair, so I had that one nailed. UTG big check-raise essentially puts me all-in, and the issue I had was this: a) I could possibly be up against a set (a set of 5-5-5 most likely if anything) - so the fact that UTG showed K-K shows my read was correct - I knew he had a pocket pair, just not sure which one it was, and b) I figured player to my left with such a large re-raise from my $6 bet would probably call. I hate being against a player's 3-2 odds all-in, that isn't a nothing probability with only $6 invested.
If I was sure I could get player to my left to fold with an all-in then I would make that play.
Arguments against my play:
I understand the easiest and most straightforward argument against my fold, especially considering my reads (if the reader in fact believes that I made those reads): I have the best hand, therefore I should go all-in in this situation. Anything else is just pussy poker. Fair enough.
My own aruguments to support the argument against my very own play:
a) What are you doing playing NL if you're not going all-in with the best hand?
b) You can even figure the approximate odds of someone having a set against you in this situation. Here is my rough calculation:
Remember, the flop is 5-10-J and I have 10-J. Odds of having a set of 5's = 3/47 X 2/46 = 0.00278 (0.278%). Odds of having a set of 10's = 1/47 X 1/46 = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Odds of having a set of J's also = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Thus, odds of having any set on this flop given the fact I have top two is 0.278% + 0.0463% + 0.0463% = 0.37%.
You can't be afraid of a set here. Stop playing scared, and stop playing pussy poker. Well, an argument against that is it doesn't matter if a given situation is literally one in a million, given the situation now exists, the chance that a player has the goods is 50%, isn't it? They either have it or they don't. Well, to tell the truth I really wasn't convinced someone had a set, therefore why the heck did I fold?!
c) By me going all-in, I do the following -- i. I support my table image of being a good solid player who won't put his chips at risk unless he has the best hand, and ii. I create significant fold equity. At least one player should fold here given 3 large re-raises on the flop (my all-in would have made the third), and if I get a caller, I should be happy to be against a draw one should say.
CONCLUSION
With only $6 invested, it was difficult for me to make the all-in play for another $160 or so. It was possible I was up against a set, and if I do get the caller with the draw the draw is only 3-2 dog, not bad odds for him. I don't like being put to the test for my entire stack with such small investments, unless I am stone cold (the absolute nuts), or short stacked or something along those lines. Still, I am at odds with myself here and may not make the same play again. I may go all-in hoping that both players behind me fold (or get a caller, increasing the pot and hope that Hold 'Em remains) and take down the pot uncontested which did swell to about $115 or so.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
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