Advanced Poker Theory: Monster Folds

This entry is designed as a brainstorming session to try and figure out what to do in a hypothetical situation. To set this up properly, let's say you're playing in a large NL tournament where the buy-in is at least $300. The assumption here is that in tournaments, players in general don't place chips into the pot on stone cold bluffs, they have a tendency to play a bit tighter than usual, and therefore typically have a made hand or monster draw or some juicy pot odds to keep them around. (The reader may immediately disagree with this statement, regardless, the scenario below stands.)

So here is the scenario: Blinds at 25-50 no antes, you have about 6000 chips and your opponent in question has about 4000 in chips. Folds around to a late position raiser (to 150), you look down at AK on the button and re-raise (to 500), player calls. 1075 in the pot. Flop comes out K-6-K with two diamonds. Player checks, you bet 600, player goes all-in, you call. Player flips over 6-6 which holds up (you need the case K or another A to win).

Was there anything else you could have done differently?

Your opponent check-raised you all-in. It is clear that your opponent is afraid of something, what is he afraid of? Why didn't he come out betting on the flop? Because he only became scared because of your bet. Your bet indicates to him that you have a K, likely with a big kicker like A or Q let's say, or you could even have a pocket pair like QQ for example. If your opponent correctly puts you on one of these types of hands (he could pretty much eliminate quad kings because who would come out betting with the stone cold nuts?, and he could probably eliminate K6 based on your pre-flop re-raise), his check-raise - and not just any check-raise, an all-in check-raise at that - is saying he wants to take down the pot right then and there and not get drawn out on. If you are holding a hand like AK or QQ, your opponent thinks to himself, then any A, K or Q on the turn or river beats him. He may not know exactly what you have, but he could certainly be afraid of any over-cards. Overcards to what? Overcards to pocket 6's! If another seven shows up on the turn or river, how does he know you don't have pocket 7's or K7 for example?

If your opponent is not afraid because he has a monster he would just slow-play and check-call (another way to play the 6-6 of course), or has a weak hand (he would fold to almost any reasonable bet) or maybe thinks you are just trying to buy the pot (and may call hoping to outplay you or check it down, etc.). Thus, does not the check-raise all-in play give you some pause?! Another piece of psychology is that your opponent may put you on a big ace, even AK, and confident you will call an all-in with that hand! So if you are thinking that the all-in play is unsophisticated, think again - it could that the player puts you on AK and knows you will call. However, if that's the case, why not milk you for all your chips slowly rather than risk you folding to the all-in check-raise? Because perhaps that's the only way your opponent believes they can get your chips, and they are comfortable taking the risk of you hitting what they know to be a four outter. If we look at the hands you can put your opponent on when he check-raises you all-in, they can be reasonably described as either: A flush draw (remember that?!), AA (an overpair), AK (same as you), KQ (any other weaker kicker than you), QQ (any underpair), AQ (representing any two non-paired cards), K6 (the nuts) or 66 (the second nuts). I mean, any poker player right off the bat without this minutiae level of detail knows there is pretty much only one hand that beats him and that is 66. So does your opponent have 66?

Let's break this down: We should reasonably eliminate the flush draw, AA, KQ, QQ and AQ types of hands (see statement in opening paragraph). (In addition, can we not eliminate these hands only unless you think your opponent is putting you on a steal, and thus he has essentially re-bluffed you in his mind. If in fact your opponent is putting you on a steal, then would they not just call to try and outplay you on a later street or hope to check it down? The all-in play here is just too reckless - especially for a flush draw early in the tournament when the player has enough chips - to believe your opponent is bluffing, unless they have something like KQ, and that is the only hand you can reasonably beat here is the point, since hands like AA or QQ should come out betting a value bet on the flop.) Thus your opponent either has AK (same as you), K6 (the nuts) or 66 (the second nuts). At this point can we not eliminate K6 as well? Would he likely call a big re-raise pre-flop with K6? Probably not. Anything is possible, but probably not in this case. And would he check-raise all-in with the nuts? So that's two strikes against that hand. (Although K6 can also get drawn out on by the same AK or KQ type of hands roughly 10% of the time with two cards to come.) So we're down to AK or 66. (At this point the astute reader will see that the best you can do is chop.) You're put to a decision early in a tournament for a good portion of your chips, but you also know that soon the blinds are going up to 50-100 and if you have 2000 chips you're still at 20 times the big blind and can still fight, so you're tempted to call since you could have the best hand and still won't be out of the tournament if you lose.

From a math perspective, which hand is more likely, AK or 66? Since you have AK and there are two kings on the flop, your opponent will be holding AK approximately (1/47 X 3/46 = 0.0014) or 0.14% of the time. Since there is one 6 on the flop, the chances your opponent is holding 66 is (3/47 X 2/46 = 0.0028) or 0.28%. So it is twice as likely (.28 > .14) your opponent has the 66! And you could understand why he would go-all-in too, he doesn't want to get drawn out on by a better boat, even if it is only 9:1. (And if he does have the K6, then you're dead to three outs instead of four anyway.) Since you've invested 1100 into the pot, you still have around 5000 chips, plenty for early play at 25-50 with the next level at 50-100. If your opponent has any of the other types of hands then what a hell of a play he made.

So lay it down when your opponent check-raises you all-in, assured you thought through the scenario, and live to fight another hand. Even though there pragmatically is only one hand that beats you, that one hand is vulnerable to any overcard that may come. It's a nice pot for early in the tournament for your opponent to take it with an all-in, let it go. Now that's one monster lay down.