In this NL cash game I made 3 straights in the first hour, and another straight for 4 straights within two hours. I swear this is true, on the second straight in the first 30 minutes I said to myself "I'm gonna get stomped by someone else who makes a straight against me when I also have a big hand later tonight." Here's my sad story and how I should have played differently.
I get to limp in the SB with 6-8 off with four players to the flop. Flop is 5-6-8 off and I come out betting. I get min raised by the BB, all others fold back to me and I call. An ace on the turn, board has four suits. I know the player in the BB pretty well, so I check, he bets the pot, and I think for 5 minutes. I go all-in (there is $120 in the pot, I have $180 behind and BB has another $61). He shows 4-7 for a flopped straight and the river doesn't get me a boat.
On the turn, I eliminate the nuts (7-9) and any over pairs, as I didn't think the BB would bet the nuts on this turn so aggressively, and would have raised any significant over-pairs pre-flop. BB could easily have just a 7, like A-7 (he has top pair on the turn with an open-ended) but I also eliminate that type of hand as I thought he would have bet something more like half to two-thirds of the pot. So I put him on the 4-7 or a 5-5 (for a set) - both hands which beat me - or something like a 5-7 (for a pair and an open-ender). I didn't eliminate the 5-5 completely, the betting pattern was certainly indicative of that type of hand as well, but the math says that the 4-7 is actually more likely (I think it's about 3x more likely to have the 4-7 than the 5-5, maybe 6.4% to 2.4%). But the thing is I also thought he could have been playing a smaller two-pair (like 5-6). I was a little stumped when the ace on the turn came out and he bet the pot ($60) - stumped in the sense that I didn't think that board would fear anything for someone with a 4-7 (the odds that I have a 7-9 for the nuts given that he knows he has the 4-7 is about 4.8%). Based on the pot size and his chip stack (lower than mine), I ignored my instincts about the 4-7 and went all-in. I thought it was a "fold or all-in" type of scenario and chose the latter sadly.
I hate when I don't follow my instincts and deductions (and the fact that I told myself I would lose a big pot in this exact way earlier in the night), but I think I could have played the hand differently (other than folding outright after the $60 bet on the turn). In one scenario, I could have re-raised my opponent's min-raise on the flop. One reason why I don't necessarily like that play is if I am re-raised, the same thinking applies - he could have a set or the 4-7 in that spot too, as easily as a lower two-pair or something like the 5-7. Instead, I like the play where on the turn, I come out betting. There was about $60 in the pot at that point, I could have bet anything, like maybe $25 or $30 to gauge where I am. At that point: a) My opponent raises me again, and he would likely raise to say $75 if he had the 4-7 or 5-5, or he may even go all-in at that point (since $75 would be more than half of his stack anyway). Then I have an easy fold. In this case I end up losing about $50. Or, b) He could simply smooth call, putting me on any other hand that is obviously weaker than his, hoping to get another bet out of me on the river assuming no scare cards (like the board pairing) come on the river. Let's say he smooth calls a $30 bet from me so now there is $120 in the pot (and I have $50 committed). On the river, my opponent has $91 left, so I could bet another $30 (I don't think checking is the right thing, even though you suspect you may be beat by a monster), and if he goes all-in, I have an easy fold. If he just calls (for some reason afraid that I have the stone cold nuts - a higher straight), I end up losing $80 total in this scenario - less than the $140 I really lost.
What do you think?
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Geting It All-In
To me, this hand is not really very interesting, but I thought I would mention it for some food for thought.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
1-3 NL cash game. Three players to the flop, I am in middle position with KJ off. Flop comes out J-10-4 with two clubs. Player1 bets, I call, Player3 raises big (all-in), Player1 thinks and calls, I fold. Player1 has KQ clubs and Player3 has AJ. Player1 ends up making the flush and wins.
There was a big debate about the odds in this hand. I would have thought (without knowing my cards) Player1 with his huge draw was a 21-out max potential (flush, open-ender, two over-cards), but from a tactical perspective, you can figure on the flush and the open-ender at least for say 15 outs, which in my head is roughly 55% to win with two cards to come. With 21 outs, I would have thought Player1 is a huge favorite for like 80% with two cards but as it turns out they are exactly 2/3 (67%). It's intriguing that this particular hand combination only gives Player1 67% rather than a much higher favorite. I'll leave it to the reader to think about that one on their own. You can use the poker odds calculator links at the bottom of the blog for some help.
I like Player1's play - with such a huge draw, you really are committed to seeing this through, especially when the re-raise all-in doesn't felt you. For Player3, with my call before him, and with so much potential action after him on this flop, I would have just called and taken a turn. If I have AJ, I am afraid of big draws and bigger hands on a flop with this texture.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Ivey v Cunningham
I watch poker hands play out on YouTube from time to time. This is one of the best hands I've seen. What I love about this is how both players play this hand on every street beginning with pre-flop action, and the ending is pure poker mastery - again, the way both players played it. Honorable mention goes to Matusow who also played his hand perfectly.
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Ivey v Cunningham on YouTube
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Aggressive Playing Results in a Bust
I don't like to admit it, because quite frankly it doesn't happen often (hardly ever), but I think I was outplayed on this hand. The end result is that I was busted very early in a small buy-in tournament ($100). I went into this one thinking I was going for the gold and wanted to chip up early (blinds at 20 minutes); Well, that didn't work out as planned. Moral of the story: Always play great poker. Like I need to teach myself that lesson again (apparently I do). In this hand, I'm going to write it with you only knowing my cards, then I'll tell you the opponent's cards at the end.
The PLAY
Blinds at 50-100. Fold to me in middle position, I open raise with Q-9d for 300. Folds around to SB who thinks about it and calls, BB calls. 900 to flop. Flop is Q-x-x (rainbow), SB checks, BB bets 500, I raise to 1,500, SB folds, BB calls. 3,900 to turn. Turn is a K (still rainbow board, no straight draws). BB checks, I bet 2,100, BB thinks a bit and calls. 8,100 to river. River is a small blank, BB checks, I put the rest of it in (5,300), BB thinks a bit and calls. I'm out.
The ANALYSIS
When BB bets on the flop, he could be betting with anything there - you know the range of hands already: a medium pocket pair (he didn't re-raise pre-flop), a big ace (including A-K), maybe a queen (Q-J, Q-K, or perhaps A-Q). I raised to show continued strength and get some more information, as well as knock out SB just in case he was thinking about sticking around, so when BB calls I have a good chance I'm beat right there. I narrow the hands down to a bigger Q, and possibly a big pair like J-J just in case he doesn't believe me and is putting me on A-K. When the K comes on the turn and he check-calls my bet, it's pretty clear I am beat at that point - with a bigger Q or Q-K for top two (I eliminate A-K, K-K at this point, but it is also possible he has A-A). That would explain both actions so far from my opponent. When he checks on the river though, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a monster (top two or even a set) so the only way I could win the hand is to go all-in and hope he only has a Q and will fold due to the K out there. Of course, I also thought he could be checking because I've been aggressive on every street - pre-flop, flop, and turn. I go all-in and he calls off the rest of his stack - very early in the tourney - with A-Q. What do you think of that call? Would you have made that call in that spot?
Alternate Play
The only other way I think I would have played this is simply to call the 500 on the flop and then check it down with the guy. Obviously that would have been the more conservative approach. With all my aggression on every street, I really felt like I needed to continue it to the river to take the large pot. With the pre-flop call and then bet on the flop, if my opponent is in fact playing a smaller pocket pair which is why he checks the turn and then the river, the most I would have won is the 1,900 (900 pre-flop + 1,000 on the flop with the 500 bet and my call theoretically), since he would have folded to any continued aggression with a smaller pocket pair. But I think as soon as I get caught in the aggression mode with the chips in the pot, I think I am committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
The only thing I'm happy about in this hand is that I pretty much nailed his hand by the river on a bigger Q, so I was pretty sure he would fold to my all-in bet. Obviously he smelled a rat somehow and caught me. Whoever you are, kudos to you sir.
The PLAY
Blinds at 50-100. Fold to me in middle position, I open raise with Q-9d for 300. Folds around to SB who thinks about it and calls, BB calls. 900 to flop. Flop is Q-x-x (rainbow), SB checks, BB bets 500, I raise to 1,500, SB folds, BB calls. 3,900 to turn. Turn is a K (still rainbow board, no straight draws). BB checks, I bet 2,100, BB thinks a bit and calls. 8,100 to river. River is a small blank, BB checks, I put the rest of it in (5,300), BB thinks a bit and calls. I'm out.
The ANALYSIS
When BB bets on the flop, he could be betting with anything there - you know the range of hands already: a medium pocket pair (he didn't re-raise pre-flop), a big ace (including A-K), maybe a queen (Q-J, Q-K, or perhaps A-Q). I raised to show continued strength and get some more information, as well as knock out SB just in case he was thinking about sticking around, so when BB calls I have a good chance I'm beat right there. I narrow the hands down to a bigger Q, and possibly a big pair like J-J just in case he doesn't believe me and is putting me on A-K. When the K comes on the turn and he check-calls my bet, it's pretty clear I am beat at that point - with a bigger Q or Q-K for top two (I eliminate A-K, K-K at this point, but it is also possible he has A-A). That would explain both actions so far from my opponent. When he checks on the river though, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a monster (top two or even a set) so the only way I could win the hand is to go all-in and hope he only has a Q and will fold due to the K out there. Of course, I also thought he could be checking because I've been aggressive on every street - pre-flop, flop, and turn. I go all-in and he calls off the rest of his stack - very early in the tourney - with A-Q. What do you think of that call? Would you have made that call in that spot?
Alternate Play
The only other way I think I would have played this is simply to call the 500 on the flop and then check it down with the guy. Obviously that would have been the more conservative approach. With all my aggression on every street, I really felt like I needed to continue it to the river to take the large pot. With the pre-flop call and then bet on the flop, if my opponent is in fact playing a smaller pocket pair which is why he checks the turn and then the river, the most I would have won is the 1,900 (900 pre-flop + 1,000 on the flop with the 500 bet and my call theoretically), since he would have folded to any continued aggression with a smaller pocket pair. But I think as soon as I get caught in the aggression mode with the chips in the pot, I think I am committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
The only thing I'm happy about in this hand is that I pretty much nailed his hand by the river on a bigger Q, so I was pretty sure he would fold to my all-in bet. Obviously he smelled a rat somehow and caught me. Whoever you are, kudos to you sir.
Greyhound Bus Service Note
Greyhound Bus Service between NYC (Port Authority) and Atlantic City is $33 round-trip (purchase at ticket counter 79 at the Port Authority) then you get a $20 cash voucher when you get to the casino. What a great round-trip deal for $13!
Travel tip: When departing from NYC, try to get there at least 30 minutes prior to departure time, as the line fills up pretty fast. When departing from A/C, you want to try and leave from a **Casino** departure point instead of the Bus Terminal, since the buses pick up passengers first from the casinos, so by the time they get to the bus terminal the bus could be nearly full.
Scroll to the bottom of this blog for links to the bus schedules.
Travel tip: When departing from NYC, try to get there at least 30 minutes prior to departure time, as the line fills up pretty fast. When departing from A/C, you want to try and leave from a **Casino** departure point instead of the Bus Terminal, since the buses pick up passengers first from the casinos, so by the time they get to the bus terminal the bus could be nearly full.
Scroll to the bottom of this blog for links to the bus schedules.
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