Wednesday, December 12, 2007
WSOP 2008 in Atlantic City
The WSOP circuit events are back in Atlantic City in 2008, March 5 to 15 at Caesars. Check out the link at the bottom of the page or just go here: WSOP Circuit Atlantic City 2008
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
WSOP $300 NL at Harrah's Atlantic City
Sunday December 9 found myself and a few friends playing in the $300 + $40 NL WSOP sponsored tournament at Harrah's in Atlantic City. Starting chips at 4000, blinds starting at 25-50 for 45 minute rounds.
A big shout out and congratulations to my friend Walt who ended up in 10th place at the event, out of a field of 701 players. As luck would have it, at around the third level Walt was moved over to my table with about 2500 in chips, all but outta there. He played two hands well back to back and shot up to about 20000 chips. We stayed at the same table through level seven when I busted out, more on that in a second. On day two at the final table I estimated perhaps 4 or so short stacks relative to the blinds, and Walt was one of them. Roughly 30 minutes into the first round Walt found himself on the button with rockets. He raised pre-flop and the cut-off limper called. With the stacks so short, there was only one move on the flop of 9-J-K: all-in. Player calls and turns over Q-10 for a straight. Ouch.
Overall, I was happy with my play but could just not get any momentum going. I stayed above water at about 12 or 13 times the big blind through level seven. How I busted out: Folds around to a late position limper and I look down at A-J suited in the small blind. I go all-in hoping to pick up 4600 in needed chips (I had about 10000 total at this point). Big blind folds and limper thinks a long time and finally calls showing 5-5. 5-5 holds and I'm out in place 170 or so, 100 positions from the money. Bummer. At least I made my money back at the tables.
A big shout out and congratulations to my friend Walt who ended up in 10th place at the event, out of a field of 701 players. As luck would have it, at around the third level Walt was moved over to my table with about 2500 in chips, all but outta there. He played two hands well back to back and shot up to about 20000 chips. We stayed at the same table through level seven when I busted out, more on that in a second. On day two at the final table I estimated perhaps 4 or so short stacks relative to the blinds, and Walt was one of them. Roughly 30 minutes into the first round Walt found himself on the button with rockets. He raised pre-flop and the cut-off limper called. With the stacks so short, there was only one move on the flop of 9-J-K: all-in. Player calls and turns over Q-10 for a straight. Ouch.
Overall, I was happy with my play but could just not get any momentum going. I stayed above water at about 12 or 13 times the big blind through level seven. How I busted out: Folds around to a late position limper and I look down at A-J suited in the small blind. I go all-in hoping to pick up 4600 in needed chips (I had about 10000 total at this point). Big blind folds and limper thinks a long time and finally calls showing 5-5. 5-5 holds and I'm out in place 170 or so, 100 positions from the money. Bummer. At least I made my money back at the tables.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
On The Flop: Set Over Set Over Top Two
Last month (November) I witnessed a flop that was wicked, which I don't think I've ever seen before. We all have seen set over set on the flop at least a few times, and know how unlikely that is. But how about set over set over two pair (and not just any two pair, top two)!! All three players in the hand were essentially allin on the flop, with the winner went to the player who held the best set (set of 10's).
Flop: A - 10 - 3
Player1 holds A - 10
Player2 holds 10-10
Player3 holds 3-3
Odds of that flop coming out given the three known hands:
a) Flop can come out in the following ways --> A-10-3, A-3-10, 10-A-3, 10-3-A, 3-A-10, 3-10-A
b) Each combination odds is --> (3/46 X 1/45 X 2/44) + (3/46 X 2/45 X 1/44) + (1/46 X 3/45 X 2/44) + (1/46 X 2/45 X 3/44) + (2/46 X 3/45 X 1/44) + (2/46 X 1/45 X 3/44) = 0.000066 X 6 (appx.) = 0.000395 or 0.0395% or about 4 in 10,000. Ouch!!
Odds that A - 10 will win: He needs an ace for a boat 2/43 + 2/42 = appx 9.4%
Odds that 3 - 3 will win: He needs the case 3, bummer. 1/43 + 1/42 = appx 4.7%
Odds that 10 - 10 will hold against the two other hands: 100 - (9.4 + 4.7) = 85.9%
Aside - Set over set over two pair in another type of combination -->
Say the flop is AKx and the players have AA KK and AK. What are the odds of that flop coming out given the three players' known hole cards?
We have: (1/46 X 1/45) X 6 = 0.000483 or 0.0483 or about 5 in 10,000.
As an aside, the odds of having set over set on the flop is:
Given that two players each have a pair already, the flop needs to come out with one of each of their hole cards. Say players hold JJ and 99. Thus the flop could be J-9-x or J-x-9 or 9-J-x or 9-x-J or x-J-9 or x-9-J (six combinations). Each combination is appx 2/48 X 2/47 = 0.00177 or 0.177%. Thus odds of set over set are appx 0.00177 X 6 = 1%.
As another aside, the odds of having set over set over set on the flop is:
Given that three players already have a pair, the flop needs to come out with one of each of their hole cards. 2/48 X 2/47 X 2/46 = 0.000077 X 6 = 0.00046. Thus the odds of set over set over set on the flop are appx 0.046% or almost 5 in 10,000.
Flop: A - 10 - 3
Player1 holds A - 10
Player2 holds 10-10
Player3 holds 3-3
Odds of that flop coming out given the three known hands:
a) Flop can come out in the following ways --> A-10-3, A-3-10, 10-A-3, 10-3-A, 3-A-10, 3-10-A
b) Each combination odds is --> (3/46 X 1/45 X 2/44) + (3/46 X 2/45 X 1/44) + (1/46 X 3/45 X 2/44) + (1/46 X 2/45 X 3/44) + (2/46 X 3/45 X 1/44) + (2/46 X 1/45 X 3/44) = 0.000066 X 6 (appx.) = 0.000395 or 0.0395% or about 4 in 10,000. Ouch!!
Odds that A - 10 will win: He needs an ace for a boat 2/43 + 2/42 = appx 9.4%
Odds that 3 - 3 will win: He needs the case 3, bummer. 1/43 + 1/42 = appx 4.7%
Odds that 10 - 10 will hold against the two other hands: 100 - (9.4 + 4.7) = 85.9%
Aside - Set over set over two pair in another type of combination -->
Say the flop is AKx and the players have AA KK and AK. What are the odds of that flop coming out given the three players' known hole cards?
We have: (1/46 X 1/45) X 6 = 0.000483 or 0.0483 or about 5 in 10,000.
As an aside, the odds of having set over set on the flop is:
Given that two players each have a pair already, the flop needs to come out with one of each of their hole cards. Say players hold JJ and 99. Thus the flop could be J-9-x or J-x-9 or 9-J-x or 9-x-J or x-J-9 or x-9-J (six combinations). Each combination is appx 2/48 X 2/47 = 0.00177 or 0.177%. Thus odds of set over set are appx 0.00177 X 6 = 1%.
As another aside, the odds of having set over set over set on the flop is:
Given that three players already have a pair, the flop needs to come out with one of each of their hole cards. 2/48 X 2/47 X 2/46 = 0.000077 X 6 = 0.00046. Thus the odds of set over set over set on the flop are appx 0.046% or almost 5 in 10,000.
Top Two On The Flop Continued...A Combinatorial Perspective
So to continue the discussion about the 5-10-J flop and me holding 10-J. Remember there are two other players in the hand. The question this discussion asks is this, "What are the odds I am beat, or if both players call, what are the odds I will get drawn out on?"
I think this topic is an advanced poker topic that warrants further discussion after this initial post.
Please read the previous post first to understand the hand in question in more detail.
What hands you can likely put your opponents on in this scenario:
1) A big overpair (QQ or KK or AA)
2) A flush draw
3) A straight draw (something like QK or 9Q or 89) [NOTE: The 89 is much less likely, as is the 9Q for the big re-raise.]
4) A set
5) Another two pair, like J-5 or 10-5 (most likely for UTG here)
As a side point, it is more likely for UTG check-raiser to have a made hand like (1) or (4).
First question -- What are the odds I am beat?
Answer: There is only one hand that beats my top two, and that's a set. As in the previous blog entry, the odds of someone having a set are about 0.37% here. As an aside, the odds of the other hands are:
Odds of (1) = 4/47 X 3/46 X 3 = 0.01665 = about 1.7% (of having any of the three overpairs)
Odds of (2) = 11/47 X 10/46 = about 5%
Odds of (3) = 4/47 X 4/46 X 3 = about 0.74% (of having any of the three draws)
Odds of (4) = See last post. About 0.37%
Odds of (5) = 2/47 X 3/46 X 2 = about 0.56% (of having any of the two choices)
And as it turned out, the most likely hands (1) and (2) were the hands that were being held by the other two players.
Second question -- What are the odds I could get drawn out on, if both players call?
Answer: We need to look at the winning percentages of each likely hand.
Re-draw winning percentages with two cards to come:
Odds of (1) = (1/45 + 1/44) = about 4.5% (any of the three overpairs, given a flush draw) to make a set + make a better two pair (can only make a 5) is 3/45 + 3/44 = 13.5% thus 18%
Odds of (2) = (8/45 + 8/44) = about 36% to make the flush (cannot make a 10 clubs) + make a better two-pair = (3/45 X 3/44 X 2) = 0.0091 or 0.91% + make a set of aces = (3/45 X 2/44) = 0.003 or 0.3%, thus total is 36 + .91 + .3 = about 37%
Odds of (3) = (6/45 + 6/44) = about 27% (each of the three straight draws, given the flush draw) to make the straight
Odds of (4) = Re-draw on river to a boat or quads = [if J-J - no quads possible, needs 10, 5, or turn card for a boat = 2/44 + 3/44 + 3/44 = 0.18 or 18%] [if 10-10 - no quads possible, needs 5 or turn card for a boat = 3/44 + 3/44 = 13.6%] [if 5-5, can only get quads to win, 1/44 = 2.3%]
Odds of (5) = Re-draw to a boat = [can only get a 5 to win, 2/44 = 4.6%]
Based on my reads and the most likely hand combinations of (1) and (2) being present, 37 + 18 = 55% (I am only 45% to win) if both players call my all-in. Since player2 was likely to call an allin, this would make UTG player more likely to call another $80. Thus my odds of getting drawn out on are what we might say is a coin flip, which sucks for having only a $6 investment (actually $6 + $4) in the hand. This is another reason I folded. You can still argue against the fold as in my previous post.
But check out the re-draw winning percentages if the hands present were (2) and (3) - the flush draw and a straight draw. If both players call my allin, and these hands are present, I am now only 36% to win!! Let me repeat, this sucks for having a $10 investment in the hand, and another reason why I folded, since I was unsure if could get at least one player off the hand. And again, you can still argue against the fold. Of course in this case I was sure I was not up against both of these hands.
Any other combination I am quite the favorite, unless at least one player has the flush draw, then it really is close to even money.
CONCLUSION
In this type of betting action on the flop, when you're up against at least two other players and faced with an all-in decision on a pot in which you have a small investment, unless you are stone cold or have great reads in which you are quite sure you have a decided winning percentage with two cards to come, it is ok to fold what you are pretty sure is currently the best hand!
I think this topic is an advanced poker topic that warrants further discussion after this initial post.
Please read the previous post first to understand the hand in question in more detail.
What hands you can likely put your opponents on in this scenario:
1) A big overpair (QQ or KK or AA)
2) A flush draw
3) A straight draw (something like QK or 9Q or 89) [NOTE: The 89 is much less likely, as is the 9Q for the big re-raise.]
4) A set
5) Another two pair, like J-5 or 10-5 (most likely for UTG here)
As a side point, it is more likely for UTG check-raiser to have a made hand like (1) or (4).
First question -- What are the odds I am beat?
Answer: There is only one hand that beats my top two, and that's a set. As in the previous blog entry, the odds of someone having a set are about 0.37% here. As an aside, the odds of the other hands are:
Odds of (1) = 4/47 X 3/46 X 3 = 0.01665 = about 1.7% (of having any of the three overpairs)
Odds of (2) = 11/47 X 10/46 = about 5%
Odds of (3) = 4/47 X 4/46 X 3 = about 0.74% (of having any of the three draws)
Odds of (4) = See last post. About 0.37%
Odds of (5) = 2/47 X 3/46 X 2 = about 0.56% (of having any of the two choices)
And as it turned out, the most likely hands (1) and (2) were the hands that were being held by the other two players.
Second question -- What are the odds I could get drawn out on, if both players call?
Answer: We need to look at the winning percentages of each likely hand.
Re-draw winning percentages with two cards to come:
Odds of (1) = (1/45 + 1/44) = about 4.5% (any of the three overpairs, given a flush draw) to make a set + make a better two pair (can only make a 5) is 3/45 + 3/44 = 13.5% thus 18%
Odds of (2) = (8/45 + 8/44) = about 36% to make the flush (cannot make a 10 clubs) + make a better two-pair = (3/45 X 3/44 X 2) = 0.0091 or 0.91% + make a set of aces = (3/45 X 2/44) = 0.003 or 0.3%, thus total is 36 + .91 + .3 = about 37%
Odds of (3) = (6/45 + 6/44) = about 27% (each of the three straight draws, given the flush draw) to make the straight
Odds of (4) = Re-draw on river to a boat or quads = [if J-J - no quads possible, needs 10, 5, or turn card for a boat = 2/44 + 3/44 + 3/44 = 0.18 or 18%] [if 10-10 - no quads possible, needs 5 or turn card for a boat = 3/44 + 3/44 = 13.6%] [if 5-5, can only get quads to win, 1/44 = 2.3%]
Odds of (5) = Re-draw to a boat = [can only get a 5 to win, 2/44 = 4.6%]
Based on my reads and the most likely hand combinations of (1) and (2) being present, 37 + 18 = 55% (I am only 45% to win) if both players call my all-in. Since player2 was likely to call an allin, this would make UTG player more likely to call another $80. Thus my odds of getting drawn out on are what we might say is a coin flip, which sucks for having only a $6 investment (actually $6 + $4) in the hand. This is another reason I folded. You can still argue against the fold as in my previous post.
But check out the re-draw winning percentages if the hands present were (2) and (3) - the flush draw and a straight draw. If both players call my allin, and these hands are present, I am now only 36% to win!! Let me repeat, this sucks for having a $10 investment in the hand, and another reason why I folded, since I was unsure if could get at least one player off the hand. And again, you can still argue against the fold. Of course in this case I was sure I was not up against both of these hands.
Any other combination I am quite the favorite, unless at least one player has the flush draw, then it really is close to even money.
CONCLUSION
In this type of betting action on the flop, when you're up against at least two other players and faced with an all-in decision on a pot in which you have a small investment, unless you are stone cold or have great reads in which you are quite sure you have a decided winning percentage with two cards to come, it is ok to fold what you are pretty sure is currently the best hand!
What Would You Do.....Top Two On The Flop
Small cash NL home game, blinds at $0.50 / $1.00
Pre-flop action:
UTG limps, I'm in middle position and call with 10-J, player raises to $4, UTG calls, I call.
$13.50 to the flop
Flop action:
J-10-5 with two clubs. UTG checks, I bet $6, pre-flop raiser makes it $21, UTG checker re-raises to $80.
I have about $160, player to my left has less (he's all-in if he calls), UTG raiser has more than me.
I fold. Player to my left calls. Club on the river to make the caller's nut club flush.
UTG shows K-K.
Why I folded:
I know I'm a huge favorite against at least one of the players. I did figure UTG for a big overpair, so I had that one nailed. UTG big check-raise essentially puts me all-in, and the issue I had was this: a) I could possibly be up against a set (a set of 5-5-5 most likely if anything) - so the fact that UTG showed K-K shows my read was correct - I knew he had a pocket pair, just not sure which one it was, and b) I figured player to my left with such a large re-raise from my $6 bet would probably call. I hate being against a player's 3-2 odds all-in, that isn't a nothing probability with only $6 invested.
If I was sure I could get player to my left to fold with an all-in then I would make that play.
Arguments against my play:
I understand the easiest and most straightforward argument against my fold, especially considering my reads (if the reader in fact believes that I made those reads): I have the best hand, therefore I should go all-in in this situation. Anything else is just pussy poker. Fair enough.
My own aruguments to support the argument against my very own play:
a) What are you doing playing NL if you're not going all-in with the best hand?
b) You can even figure the approximate odds of someone having a set against you in this situation. Here is my rough calculation:
Remember, the flop is 5-10-J and I have 10-J. Odds of having a set of 5's = 3/47 X 2/46 = 0.00278 (0.278%). Odds of having a set of 10's = 1/47 X 1/46 = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Odds of having a set of J's also = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Thus, odds of having any set on this flop given the fact I have top two is 0.278% + 0.0463% + 0.0463% = 0.37%.
You can't be afraid of a set here. Stop playing scared, and stop playing pussy poker. Well, an argument against that is it doesn't matter if a given situation is literally one in a million, given the situation now exists, the chance that a player has the goods is 50%, isn't it? They either have it or they don't. Well, to tell the truth I really wasn't convinced someone had a set, therefore why the heck did I fold?!
c) By me going all-in, I do the following -- i. I support my table image of being a good solid player who won't put his chips at risk unless he has the best hand, and ii. I create significant fold equity. At least one player should fold here given 3 large re-raises on the flop (my all-in would have made the third), and if I get a caller, I should be happy to be against a draw one should say.
CONCLUSION
With only $6 invested, it was difficult for me to make the all-in play for another $160 or so. It was possible I was up against a set, and if I do get the caller with the draw the draw is only 3-2 dog, not bad odds for him. I don't like being put to the test for my entire stack with such small investments, unless I am stone cold (the absolute nuts), or short stacked or something along those lines. Still, I am at odds with myself here and may not make the same play again. I may go all-in hoping that both players behind me fold (or get a caller, increasing the pot and hope that Hold 'Em remains) and take down the pot uncontested which did swell to about $115 or so.
Pre-flop action:
UTG limps, I'm in middle position and call with 10-J, player raises to $4, UTG calls, I call.
$13.50 to the flop
Flop action:
J-10-5 with two clubs. UTG checks, I bet $6, pre-flop raiser makes it $21, UTG checker re-raises to $80.
I have about $160, player to my left has less (he's all-in if he calls), UTG raiser has more than me.
I fold. Player to my left calls. Club on the river to make the caller's nut club flush.
UTG shows K-K.
Why I folded:
I know I'm a huge favorite against at least one of the players. I did figure UTG for a big overpair, so I had that one nailed. UTG big check-raise essentially puts me all-in, and the issue I had was this: a) I could possibly be up against a set (a set of 5-5-5 most likely if anything) - so the fact that UTG showed K-K shows my read was correct - I knew he had a pocket pair, just not sure which one it was, and b) I figured player to my left with such a large re-raise from my $6 bet would probably call. I hate being against a player's 3-2 odds all-in, that isn't a nothing probability with only $6 invested.
If I was sure I could get player to my left to fold with an all-in then I would make that play.
Arguments against my play:
I understand the easiest and most straightforward argument against my fold, especially considering my reads (if the reader in fact believes that I made those reads): I have the best hand, therefore I should go all-in in this situation. Anything else is just pussy poker. Fair enough.
My own aruguments to support the argument against my very own play:
a) What are you doing playing NL if you're not going all-in with the best hand?
b) You can even figure the approximate odds of someone having a set against you in this situation. Here is my rough calculation:
Remember, the flop is 5-10-J and I have 10-J. Odds of having a set of 5's = 3/47 X 2/46 = 0.00278 (0.278%). Odds of having a set of 10's = 1/47 X 1/46 = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Odds of having a set of J's also = 0.000463 (0.0463%). Thus, odds of having any set on this flop given the fact I have top two is 0.278% + 0.0463% + 0.0463% = 0.37%.
You can't be afraid of a set here. Stop playing scared, and stop playing pussy poker. Well, an argument against that is it doesn't matter if a given situation is literally one in a million, given the situation now exists, the chance that a player has the goods is 50%, isn't it? They either have it or they don't. Well, to tell the truth I really wasn't convinced someone had a set, therefore why the heck did I fold?!
c) By me going all-in, I do the following -- i. I support my table image of being a good solid player who won't put his chips at risk unless he has the best hand, and ii. I create significant fold equity. At least one player should fold here given 3 large re-raises on the flop (my all-in would have made the third), and if I get a caller, I should be happy to be against a draw one should say.
CONCLUSION
With only $6 invested, it was difficult for me to make the all-in play for another $160 or so. It was possible I was up against a set, and if I do get the caller with the draw the draw is only 3-2 dog, not bad odds for him. I don't like being put to the test for my entire stack with such small investments, unless I am stone cold (the absolute nuts), or short stacked or something along those lines. Still, I am at odds with myself here and may not make the same play again. I may go all-in hoping that both players behind me fold (or get a caller, increasing the pot and hope that Hold 'Em remains) and take down the pot uncontested which did swell to about $115 or so.
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